Global Coffee Market Sees Mixed Trends as Robusta Exports Decline Sharply
The latest January 2025 Monthly Coffee Factsheet, released by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), presents a mixed picture for the global coffee industry. While the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) has risen by 3.5% in December 2024 compared to the previous month, reaching 310.1 US cents per pound, the industry is witnessing a significant shift in exports, particularly in the Robusta segment.
According to the ICO report, exports of all forms of Robusta coffee have dropped by 20.7% compared to December 2023, marking one of the steepest declines in recent years. This drop is attributed to poor weather conditions in Vietnam and Indonesia, the world’s top Robusta producers, as well as logistical challenges and stricter EU deforestation laws that are reshaping the export landscape. The Robusta segment, widely used in instant coffee and espresso blends, is now facing increasing cost pressures and supply chain disruptions, which could drive up global prices for Robusta-heavy products.
Arabica coffee, which dominates the specialty coffee market, saw a more moderate decline of 6.3% compared to December 2023. Despite this drop, Brazil and Colombia—two of the largest Arabica-producing nations—have maintained relatively stable output, helping to cushion the market from sharper downturns. Experts suggest that fluctuations in the Brazilian real and Colombian peso against the US dollar have played a role in price adjustments, while climate unpredictability remains a looming concern.
Despite the challenges, total global coffee exports for December 2024 reached 32.3 million 60-kg bags, with Arabica accounting for 61.3% of all coffee exports, while Robusta made up 38.7%. This distribution underscores the continued global preference for Arabica, despite higher costs, as consumer trends lean towards premium quality and sustainability certifications.
The increase in the ICO Composite Indicator Price suggests a tightening market, with supply constraints, increased freight costs, and currency fluctuations contributing to the upward trend. Analysts also point to hedging strategies by major coffee traders, who are responding to uncertain production forecasts for 2025.
The report also highlights a growing demand for soluble coffee, particularly in emerging markets across Asia and Africa, where instant coffee remains a staple due to its affordability and convenience. However, with Robusta supplies shrinking, soluble coffee producers may shift towards blends with lower Robusta ratios, potentially impacting taste profiles and pricing strategies in key consumer markets.
As 2025 unfolds, industry analysts will be closely monitoring weather patterns in coffee-producing regions, geopolitical factors affecting trade, and the evolving landscape of sustainability regulations. Will Brazil’s upcoming harvest stabilize Arabica supplies? How will Vietnam and Indonesia respond to Robusta shortages? Will global prices continue their upward trajectory in the coming months?
With these uncertainties, coffee market players—including producers, traders, and retailers—must remain adaptable to navigate the shifting dynamics of the global coffee economy.
The full report and additional insights can be accessed on the International Coffee Organization’s official platform.
