The head of the “Roschaikofe” association, Ramaz Chanturia, told TASS News Agency that global coffee prices are expected to decrease by 20-30% after February 2025. This anticipated drop is linked to clearer results of coffee harvests in Vietnam and more accurate forecasts for production in Brazil, which could stabilize the volatile coffee markets currently impacted by challenging climatic conditions.
Bloomberg previously reported that coffee prices had reached unprecedented levels due to a potential global supply shortage. According to the report, futures contracts for Arabica coffee in New York are currently trading at $3.44 per pound, the highest level since 1977. This surge is attributed to severe drought in Brazil, which threatens to reduce supplies, as well as weather-related issues affecting Vietnam’s production of Robusta coffee, the less expensive variety.
Ramaz Chanturia highlighted that Brazil, which accounts for approximately 40% of global coffee production, and Vietnam, contributing around 20%, are the two largest coffee producers globally. Any changes in coffee production in these countries directly influence global market prices. He noted that by February 2025, the picture would become clearer regarding harvests in these key regions, enabling more precise projections for the upcoming season. Chanturia predicted that prices might begin to decline gradually after this period or stabilize at lower levels, with an expected drop of up to 30%.
He further emphasized that the simultaneous and significant increase in prices for both Arabica and Robusta coffee is unprecedented. Previously, price hikes in Arabica were often balanced by the affordability of Robusta. However, due to weak harvests in Vietnam, Robusta prices have more than doubled over the past year, reaching record highs. Chanturia pointed out that this situation poses challenges for both companies and consumers.
The expert also explained that companies with expiring fixed-price supply contracts are now facing the challenge of signing new contracts at significantly higher rates, inevitably leading to increased production costs and higher retail prices. However, Chanturia reassured that there would not be a significant global coffee shortage despite the ongoing pressures expected to persist until February.
He also highlighted potential changes in consumer behavior due to rising coffee prices. Consumers may shift toward more affordable alternatives, such as blended coffee or lower-quality beans, potentially impacting the demand for specialty coffee. Additionally, Chanturia stressed that companies might need to innovate and enhance production efficiency to mitigate the effects of rising costs on consumers. With climate conditions continuing to affect crops, he predicted increased investment in sustainable agricultural practices to improve crop resilience to environmental changes.
Despite these challenges, Chanturia emphasized that coffee demand in Russia would remain strong, with consumption levels staying high. He noted that the current year and the next may see either stagnation or a slight decline in coffee consumption, but it is expected to remain relatively robust despite price-related difficulties.