Replenishing global coffee inventories after years of supply deficits could require at least two consecutive strong harvests, according to industry officials speaking at the Coffee Dinner & Summit held in Brazil.

Despite forecasts of a large coffee crop in Brazil for the upcoming season, experts cautioned that this alone will not be enough to restore stock levels or ease market pressures in the short term. The combination of persistent demand and unstable weather patterns continues to challenge recovery efforts.

“I do not believe we’ll be able to rebuild stocks from this year to next year,” said Luiz Fernando dos Reis, Commercial Superintendent at Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative. “We would need at least two good harvests.”

Charles Chiapolino, Director of Coffee Research at Louis Dreyfus Company, echoed the sentiment:
“To return to the stock levels we had four years ago, we’ll need at least two years of very good harvests — and that’s if everything goes right.” He added that achieving favorable weather conditions across major producing countries for two consecutive years is “almost impossible.”

German Bahamon, CEO of the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation, emphasized that global demand remains stable or even growing in some markets, making it difficult to accumulate reserves:
“At the moment, no one can build stocks while consumption remains this strong.”

Looking ahead, Reis noted that even if Brazil delivers a strong 2026/27 harvest, the following crop may fall short due to the biennial nature of arabica coffee trees, which typically alternate between high and low-yielding years.

Coffee prices surged earlier this year, driven by tight supplies and consistent global demand. While Brazil, the world’s top producer and exporter, plays a crucial role in stabilizing the market, experts warn that structural challenges — from climate volatility to shifting production cycles — will continue to test the industry’s ability to rebuild inventories in the near future.