Author: Qahwa World – Ho Chi Minh City
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report VM2026-0016
Date: May 20, 2026
Vietnam Coffee Output Rises to 32.5 Million Bags in 2026
Executive Summary
- Vietnam coffee production for 2026/2027 is forecast at 32.5 million 60 kg bags, comprising 31.4 million bags of Robusta and 1.1 million bags of Arabica.
- Harvested area expands to 644,000 hectares, driven by replanting programs and price incentives from 2024-2025 peaks.
- Exports are forecast at 28.95 million bags, up 2% from 2025/2026, with strong demand from Germany, Italy, the United States, and emerging Asian markets.
- Domestic consumption continues to grow, reaching 5 million bags, supported by rising middle class and tourism.
- Falling prices from recent peaks have prompted producers to release stocks, supporting strong export performance.
- Fertilizer and fuel costs up 30%, labor costs up 33%, pressuring farmer income.
- El Niño with 62% probability expected in mid-2026, threatening dry conditions in the Central Highlands.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service office in Ho Chi Minh City forecasts Vietnam coffee production for marketing year 2026/2027 at 32.5 million 60 kg bags, comprising 31.4 million bags of Robusta and 1.1 million bags of Arabica. This represents an increase from the revised 2025/2026 estimate of 31.7 million bags.
The increase is driven by production expansion following the price peaks of 2024-2025, replanting programs, and expansion by large private enterprises such as Hoang Anh Gia Lai Group and Vinh Hiep Co., Ltd.
Exports are forecast at 28.95 million bags in 2026/2027, up 2% from the revised 2025/2026 estimate of 28.5 million bags. The first half of 2025/2026 saw exports reach 15.7 million bags, a 27.5% increase year-on-year.
Domestic consumption continues to grow, forecast at 5 million bags in 2026/2027, up from 4.9 million bags. GDP grew above 8% in 2025, and tourism reached 21 million international visitors, boosting coffee demand.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam’s total coffee area has reached approximately 730,000 hectares. Harvested area for 2026/2027 is forecast at 644,000 hectares, up from 630,200 hectares in 2025/2026.
Improved productivity and climate-resilient varieties drive steady Robusta growth, while Arabica area remains stable. Replanted areas under the Coffee Replanting Program (2021-2023) will enter stable harvest phase with high-yield potential.
However, the Western Highland Agriculture and Forestry Science Institute warns that approximately 30% of current coffee area is 20 years or older and requires replanting or renewal to maintain productivity.
Rising Input Costs and Farmer Concerns
High coffee export prices in 2024-2025 created strong production incentives but also risks to long-term sustainability. Farmers increased input applications, often applying fertilizer beyond recommended levels, resulting in excess nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium in some areas of the Central Highlands.
Early or excessive irrigation may increase coffee yield in the short term, but depletes groundwater and increases production costs over time. Local farmers report that production costs have increased significantly, with fertilizer and fuel rising approximately 30% and labor costs rising 33% compared to the previous year.
Farmers express concern about reduced rainfall and drought conditions in the Central Highlands. Precipitation fell below normal from January to March 2026 in major coffee-producing provinces including Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Kon Tum, Dak Nong, and Lam Dong.
NOAA forecasts a 62% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge during June to August 2026 and persist through at least the end of 2026. El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to parts of Southeast Asia, which could reduce coffee productivity and production.
Sustainability and EUDR Compliance
Vietnam is steadily transforming from a quantity-focused coffee exporter into a globally competitive producer of high-quality, innovative, and sustainable coffee products. As of 2025, approximately 40% of Vietnam’s coffee area has achieved sustainability certification standards such as Rainforest Alliance, Fairtrade, 4C, and UTZ.
The Specialty Coffee Program, developed by MAE in 2021, continues to focus on improving bean quality through better farming practices, selective harvesting, and post-harvest processing techniques. This shift attracts attention from global buyers seeking distinctive flavor profiles and traceable origin stories.
MAE and coffee export companies are actively working to fulfill EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) requirements, which take effect in December 2026. However, challenges remain with more than 600,000 smallholder households involved in coffee production.
Intercropping and Crop Diversification
In recent years, many farmers in the Central Highlands converted portions of their coffee-growing areas to higher-value crops like durian, which can generate profits 2.5 to 3 times higher than coffee per unit area. However, the sharp rise in coffee export prices in 2024 reversed this trend, prompting farmers to return to coffee cultivation.
The traditional coffee monoculture model is gradually shifting toward intercropping systems, where farmers grow coffee alongside durian, avocado, macadamia, or pepper. While intercropping helps diversify farmer income, it reduces coffee tree density per unit area, complicating accurate acreage measurements.
Exports and Markets
Vietnam exported approximately 15.7 million bags in the first half of 2025/2026, a 27.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024/2025. Major markets demonstrated strong export growth, including Germany (up 46%), Italy (up 31%), the United States (up 37%), Spain (up 22%), Russia (up 35%), and Japan (up 19%).
Asian markets also recorded significant growth, including India (up 1,022%), Cambodia (up 473%), Thailand (up 56%), and China (up 50%). Soluble and roasted coffee exports account for approximately 13% of total exports, with forecast at 3.55 million bags in 2026/2027.
During the first half of 2025/2026, Laos was Vietnam’s largest coffee supplier, accounting for 45% of total imports, followed by Indonesia (19%), Brazil (16%), and Uganda (10%).
Prices and Stocks
The average export price reached $5,127 per ton in the first half of 2025/2026, down 9% compared to the same period of 2024/2025. In March 2026, the export price was $4,553 per ton, a 22% decrease compared to March 2025. However, coffee prices remain elevated compared to 2023/2024.
Domestic Robusta coffee prices in the Central Highlands averaged approximately VND 102,800 per kg in the first half of 2025/2026, a 16% decrease compared to the first half of 2024/2025.
Ending stocks for 2025/2026 are revised down to 689,000 bags based on stronger exports and higher domestic consumption. Stocks are forecast to continue declining to 489,000 bags in 2026/2027.
Table 1: Vietnam Coffee Production, Supply and Distribution (1,000 60 kg bags)
| Item | 2024/2025 | 2025/2026 | 2026/2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning Stocks | 889 | 1,089 | 689 |
| Arabica Production | 1,000 | 1,200 | 1,100 |
| Robusta Production | 28,000 | 30,500 | 31,400 |
| Total Production | 29,000 | 31,700 | 32,500 |
| Total Imports | 1,200 | 1,300 | 1,250 |
| Total Exports | 25,200 | 28,500 | 28,950 |
| Domestic Consumption | 4,800 | 4,900 | 5,000 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,089 | 689 | 489 |
Frequently Asked Questions
How much coffee will Vietnam produce in 2026/2027?
Production is forecast at 32.5 million 60 kg bags, including 31.4 million bags of Robusta and 1.1 million bags of Arabica.
What is driving the increase in production?
Expansion in harvested area, replanting programs, and high price incentives from 2024-2025 peaks.
What are the main export destinations for Vietnamese coffee?
Major markets include Germany, Italy, the United States, Spain, Russia, Japan, and emerging Asian markets like India, Thailand, and China.
How are prices trending?
Export prices have declined 9% from the same period last year, and domestic Robusta prices are down 16%.
What is the El Niño risk for Vietnam’s coffee crop?
NOAA forecasts a 62% probability of El Niño emerging by mid-2026, which could bring drier conditions to the Central Highlands and reduce productivity.
How much of Vietnam’s coffee area is certified sustainable?
Approximately 40% of Vietnam’s coffee area has achieved sustainability certifications such as Rainforest Alliance, Fairtrade, 4C, and UTZ.
Author: Qahwa World – Ho Chi Minh City | Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report VM2026-0016 | Date: May 20, 2026
