Vietnam’s Coffee Harvest Hit by Climate Challenges
Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee producer, is bracing for a sharp decline in its 2024-2025 coffee harvest due to extreme weather conditions. Prolonged droughts, heatwaves, and erratic rainfall have significantly impacted the Central Highlands, the country’s primary coffee-growing region.
Experts estimate that coffee yields will drop by 10 to 20 percent compared to the previous season, with some farms reporting losses as high as 50 percent. Farmers in key producing provinces, including Dak Lak and Gia Lai, cite poor flowering and fruit development caused by back-to-back droughts and high temperatures.
“The drought severely affected flowering, leaving many trees with significantly less fruit,” said Ho Quoc Huy, a coffee grower near Buon Ma Thuot. Similarly, farmer Tina Trinh from Dak Lak noted that trees weakened by last year’s drought struggled to recover, leading to widespread crop failure.
Meteorologists attribute these extreme conditions to the recurring El Niño phenomenon, which has caused prolonged dry spells and rising temperatures across Vietnam’s coffee belt. Growers report that trees suffered severe defoliation, further reducing productivity.
Although most coffee trees survived, industry experts warn that full recovery could take multiple harvest cycles. “Even if weather conditions improve, a full rebound may not happen until at least the 2026-27 season,” said Le Dinh Tu of Aeroco Specialty Coffee Farm.
Field reports indicate that many coffee farms have low fruit-bearing rates, particularly on the upper and middle branches of trees, reinforcing concerns over declining yields.
According to Vietnam’s Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), the 2023-24 coffee crop fell by 20 percent to 24.5 million bags, marking one of the smallest harvests in a decade. With continued drought conditions, the upcoming harvest is projected to drop further to around 22 million bags.
Vietnam’s General Department of Customs data shows that coffee exports from January to October 2024 fell by 11.2 percent compared to the same period in 2023, highlighting tightening supply in global markets.
As global coffee stocks dwindle, international coffee prices have surged, with Robusta reaching record highs. Meanwhile, domestic coffee consumption in Vietnam is growing, with demand expected to rise 12.5 percent to 3.6 million bags in the 2024-25 cycle, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Farmers, benefiting from diversified income sources such as durian and black pepper cultivation, are holding onto their coffee stocks longer, further limiting supply. “With lower yields and multiple income streams, many growers are not rushing to sell their coffee,” Trinh explained.
As Vietnam navigates these challenges, balancing local consumption, export commitments, and climate-related risks remains a critical issue for the country’s coffee industry.
