Dubai, 16 August 2025 – (Qahwa World) – A light frost in Brazil’s Cerrado Mineiro region has raised new concerns for the country’s 2026 coffee crop. The event struck at a particularly delicate moment, with early flowering underway in several producing zones, leaving trees highly vulnerable to weather fluctuations.

Light but Significant Frost

In Patrocínio and surrounding areas of Cerrado Mineiro, temperatures dropped to around 1.9°C, causing frost that touched the tops of flowering trees. Gláucio de Castro, president of the Cerrado Coffee Growers’ Federation, confirmed:

“This frost was mostly a capote type affecting the canopy of trees… but it still has an impact.”

While local reports describe the damage as limited and patchy, farmers remain on high alert as any further cold fronts could magnify risks to the 2026 harvest.

2025 Harvest Nears Completion

According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest was 94% complete as of August 6, with arabica at 91% and robusta at 99%. Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest cooperative, reported that about 80% of its members’ crops had been harvested by August 8. Despite the steady progress, agronomists noted during Cooxupé’s technical forum that “the yields this season are not very good,” underscoring the ongoing climatic pressures.

Market Reaction

Global coffee markets quickly responded to the frost news. On August 14, arabica futures in New York gained 1.4%, while robusta contracts in London jumped 4.7%, reaching a two-month high. At the same time, ICE-monitored arabica stocks fell to their lowest level in 15 months, signaling tightening supplies.

International Responses

Colombia: The Coffee Growers’ Committee of Caldas noted that “unusually low temperatures in Brazilian regions revived fears of late August frosts and contributed to heightened price volatility.”
Vietnam: Economic outlets and the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (VICOFA) linked the sharp rise in prices on August 14 directly to “frost reports from Brazil,” calling the event a key driver of the market rally.

Climate Meets Trade

The frost episode coincides with escalating trade tensions. Since early August, the United States has imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian green coffee, prompting some importers to freeze orders while waiting for clarity. This policy move, combined with the weather shock, has intensified market volatility and raised questions about global supply security.

An Uncertain Outlook

Although the latest frost was described as light and localized, the flowering stage is highly sensitive, and even small temperature drops can jeopardize fruit set. Analysts stress that the coming days will be decisive: another cold front could significantly affect Brazil’s 2026 crop, altering the balance of global supply and demand at a time when inventories are already strained.

2026 coffee crop risk

Cold Snap Threatens Brazil’s 2026 Coffee Crop and Sends Ripples Through Global Markets