International Coffee Organization Releases Coffee Market Report for May 2026

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) published its monthly coffee market report for May 2026, showing a continued downward drift in prices as expectations of ample supply strengthened. The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I‑CIP) averaged 256.05 US cents/lb in May 2026, a 3.8% decrease from April 2026. The market continued to react to an improved supply outlook, reinforced by CONAB’s reaffirmation of a record outlook for Brazil’s production in crop year 2026/27.

Despite the decline, prices remain relatively elevated by historical standards. The drop reflects growing market expectations of a possible global surplus in coffee year 2026/27, combined with harvest pressure from Brazil and persistent backwardation in financial markets.

Group Indicator Performance: Arabicas Decline, Robustas Edge Up

Colombian Milds averaged 323.45 US cents/lb in May 2026, down 3.3% from April. Other Milds fell 4.8% to 315.42 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals dropped 6.4% to 293.73 US cents/lb – the steepest decline among the groups. In contrast, Robustas rose 1.1% to 166.51 US cents/lb.

On the futures markets, New York arabica futures fell 5.8% to 268.18 US cents/lb, while London robusta futures gained 0.8% to 151.79 US cents/lb. The arbitrage between the two futures markets contracted by 13.1% to 116.39 US cents/lb, highlighting in particular the improving prospects for arabica production in Brazil.

Certified Stocks at Multi‑Month Lows

ICE‑certified robusta stocks fell 0.1% from April to May 2026, closing the month at 0.64 million bags. US‑certified arabica stocks also declined, dropping 13.5% to 0.48 million bags – the lowest level in months. The continued drawdown in certified stocks suggests persistent market uncertainty, as nearby contract premiums are not yet high enough to incentivize deliveries into certified warehouses.

CONAB Forecast: Record Brazil 2026/27 Crop

In mid‑May, Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) released its second crop survey. It raised the total 2026/27 production forecast by about 0.5 million bags to a record 66.7 million bags. Arabica production was increased by 1.67 million bags to 45.8 million bags (+28% y/y). Robusta production was cut by about 1.2 million bags to 20.9 million bags (still a +0.8% y/y increase). CONAB also reported a 3.9% increase in coffee area to 2.34 million hectares, with yields rising to 34.4 bags per hectare. However, CONAB noted that carry‑over stocks remain low and highlighted continued growth in global demand, which tempered some of the market’s bearish sentiment.

Green Bean Exports: Overall Decline, Robusta Growth

Total global green bean exports reached 10.51 million bags in April 2026, down 1.9% from 10.71 million bags in April 2025. All coffee groups recorded declines except Robustas. Details:

• Colombian Milds: down 14.0% to 0.78 million bags.
• Other Milds: down 1.1% to 2.31 million bags.
• Brazilian Naturals: down 14.8% to 2.91 million bags.
• Robustas: up 11.2% to 4.50 million bags.

As a result, the Arabicas’ share of total green bean exports for the first seven months of coffee year 2025/26 fell to 60.4%, down from 64.2% in the same period a year earlier.

Regional Performance: Asia & Oceania Lead Growth

Total exports of all forms of coffee (green, soluble, roasted) fell 0.9% to 12.05 million bags in April 2026 compared with 12.17 million bags in April 2025. Regional dynamics were mixed:

• Asia & Oceania: Up 7.3% to 4.64 million bags, led by Vietnam. Vietnamese exports jumped 12.1% to 3.41 million bags – the country’s largest April export volume on record.
• Africa: Down 22.1% to 1.54 million bags, driven by sharp declines in Ethiopia and Uganda.
• South America: Down 1.2% to 3.99 million bags, with Colombia recording its fifth consecutive monthly decline.
• Caribbean, Mexico & Central America: Up 3.3% to 1.88 million bags, led by Honduras (+23.0%).

Price Volatility and El Niño Risks

The intra‑day volatility of the I‑CIP averaged 8.8% in May 2026, down 0.2 percentage points from April. Volatility for Brazilian Naturals and Robustas also declined, while Colombian Milds volatility increased slightly. On the futures markets, New York arabica volatility stood at 10.2%, and London robusta volatility at 10.1%.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño”. Such a pattern could delay Brazil’s September‑October 2026 flowering rains, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop. However, the impact of El Niño in Brazil is complex – it can be positive or negative depending on region, intensity, and timing.

Frequently Asked Questions About the ICO May 2026 Coffee Market Report