LONDON – Qahwa World
The latest monthly report issued by the International Coffee Organization for February 2026 has revealed a dramatic shift that could redefine the global coffee market dynamics for years to come. After a prolonged period of scarcity and record-high prices that strained both suppliers and consumers, the report announced a sharp decline in price indicators. This shift is driven by a “tsunami” of anticipated supplies from Brazil and Vietnam, officially placing the market on the verge of a historic surplus that ends a three-year cycle of consecutive deficits.
- Price Earthquake
In February, the Organization’s Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 267.57 US cents/lb, representing a sharp 9.9% decrease compared to January. This decline is not merely a transient fluctuation but reflects massive selling pressure in global exchanges; the index opened the month at a peak of 289.47 cents and slid to 248.86 cents by month-end, the lowest level recorded since August 2025.
None of the major categories were immune to this downward trend, with the Organization’s statistical analysis showing the following results:
- Colombian Milds: Declined by 11.0% to settle at 330.89 cents.
- Other Milds: Retracted by 11.7% to reach 321.35 cents.
- Brazilian Naturals: Shrank by 10.2% to reach 308.62 cents.
Robustas: Proved most resilient, declining by only 6.6%. Experts attribute this to global roasters increasing the proportion of Robusta in their commercial blends as a strategic solution to reduce overall costs, creating sustainable demand that stabilized its price levels.
- Brazilian and Vietnamese Winds
Organization analysts believe the fundamental reason behind this “price correction” lies in the optimistic forecasts from Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB), which raised expectations for the 2026/27 crop to 66.2 million bags, a massive 17.1% annual increase.
These forecasts were supported by a tangible improvement in weather conditions and regular, heavy rainfall in key growing regions such as Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, as well as improved outlooks in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. These factors prompted major international financial institutions to predict a global surplus of up to 8.64 million bags, leading large investment funds to liquidate long positions and pivot toward selling. This explains the 20.7% shrinkage in the arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets.
- Global Trade Map
Regarding exports, January 2026 saw the shipment of 10.85 million bags of green beans, a 12.7% increase over January 2025. However, behind this headline figure lie geographical disparities reflecting specific regional logistical and production challenges:
Asia & Oceania: The region achieved a staggering 51.8% growth, with Vietnam alone exporting 3.99 million bags in January, capitalizing on accelerated shipping ahead of the Lunar New Year (Tet) holiday.
Africa: Continued its recovery with 14.2% growth. Ethiopia stood out as a strategic player with a 51.5% increase in shipments, while Uganda grew by 11.2%, reflecting a significant improvement in the continent’s internal supply chains.
South America: Recorded a surprising 21.3% decline. The biggest shock was in Colombia, where production plummeted by 34.1% due to unfavorable localized weather fluctuations, negatively impacting the flow of premium Colombian Milds to global markets.
Mexico & Central America: Registered a slight 4.2% decrease, with Honduras suffering a sharp 28.7% drop in exports due to seasonal labor shortages and logistical hurdles.
Read Also: ICO Releases Global Coffee Market Report – December 2025
- Stocks and Processed Coffee
For the first time in months, the International Coffee Organization report indicates a slight improvement in certified stocks. New York (ICE) stocks rose by 11.4% to 0.52 million bags, while London stocks increased by 3.1% to 0.76 million bags. This rise provides a relative “safety cushion” against sudden climatic or political shocks.
A notable phenomenon in the report was the export of “Roasted Coffee,” which jumped by 25.2%. This indicates a strategic shift in origin countries toward local processing to add value to their products rather than relying solely on raw bean exports. Meanwhile, soluble coffee exports grew at a steady pace of 1.9%.
- The Retail Paradox
The report highlighted a crucial point affecting the real economy: despite the collapse of raw coffee prices in global exchanges, retail prices in the United States jumped by 18.3% year-on-year in January 2026. This persistent inflation, totaling 47% cumulatively over five years, is mainly due to rising logistics, energy, and labor costs in consuming countries. Additionally, accumulating consumer debt is beginning to weigh on purchasing power, which may threaten the expected 1.7% growth in global consumption.
- Future Outlook
We are entering a phase of total “reset” in coffee market balances. The market is currently moving to narrow the global deficit to just 0.4 million bags this season, paving the way for the anticipated historic surplus next year. For investors, roasters, and consumers, the February 2026 report serves as the “final whistle” for the era of frantic speculation and chronic shortages, signaling the start of a price stability phase led by Brazilian production abundance and Vietnamese logistical efficiency.
