A New Study Warns Of The Impact Of Climate Change On Coffee

A New Study Warns Of The Impact Of Climate Change On Coffee

A recent study warned of the dangers of climate change on coffee production, stressing that with moderate climate change, the world may lose half of the land suitable for growing coffee in Brazil, which is currently the largest coffee producer in the world, as the area of ​​land suitable for growing coffee will decrease by 79 percent.

During the study, conducted by scientists from Switzerland, the potential impact of climate change on coffee, cashews and avocados was evaluated, as the scientists concluded that climate change will affect the growing areas of all these crops. This, in turn, can affect both producers and consumers around the world.

Fortunately, scientists say, because of climate change, some other regions may, on the contrary, become more suitable for coffee cultivation. Those regions, for example, are some parts of China, Argentina and the USA.

Below is the full text of the study published by the THE CONVERSATION

Coffee May Become More Scarce and Expensive Thanks To Climate Change – New Research

The world could lose half of its best coffee-growing land under a moderate climate change scenario. Brazil, which is the currently world’s largest coffee producer, will see its most suitable coffee-growing land decline by 79%.

That’s one key finding of a new study by scientists in Switzerland, who assessed the potential impacts of climate change on coffee, cashews and avocados. All three are important globally traded crops that are mainly produced by small-scale farmers in the tropics.

Coffee is by far the most important with an expected revenue of US$460 billion (£344 billion) in 2022, while the figures for avocado and cashew are respectively $13 billion and $6 billion. While coffee mainly serves as a stimulatory beverage, avocados and cashews are widely consumed food crops that are rich in monounsaturated plant oils and other beneficial nutrients.

The major take-home message from the new study is that predicted climatic changes are likely to result in significant declines in the amount of land suitable for growing these crops in some of the main regions where they are currently cultivated. In turn this could impact both growers and consumers around the world.

To date, most research into the future impacts of climate change on food has focused on principal staple crops such as wheat, maize, potatoes and oilseeds that are grown in temperate regions. This has mirrored the tendency of climate scientists to focus on the potentially severe impacts of climate change on temperate ecosystems, especially due to altered temperature and rainfall patterns.
In contrast, there has been less work on the tropical ecosystems that constitute about 40% of global land area where more than 3 billion people make their living, with as many as 1 billion more people expected to do so by the 2050s.

The tropics also sustain vast reservoirs of biodiversity, as well as areas to grow many important crops that provide income and food for their huge human populations. The new research confirms and significantly extends findings from the relatively small number of existing studies on coffee, cashew and avocado crops.
An important innovation in the study is to examine land and soil parameters in addition to purely climatic factors such as temperature and rainfall patterns. This enables them to provide a more nuanced view of future impacts that might significantly change the suitability of some tropical regions for growing certain crops due to changes in factors such as soil pH or texture.

The new study complements other recent research into oil palm. Though controversial and often linked to deforestation, oil palm is still one of the most important tropical crops in terms of human nutrition, helping feed more than 3 billion people.
Colleagues and I recently reviewed several modelling analyses of how climate change could impact the incidence of disease and overall mortality in oil palm. The stark conclusion was that tree mortality is likely to increase significantly after 2050, possibly wiping out much of the crop in the Americas. In addition, incidence of the major stem rot disease was predicted to increase drastically across south-east Asia.
Surprising extent and complexity
Collectively, these studies are beginning to reveal the surprising extent and complexity of the impacts of climate change and associated factors on some of the most grown crops in the tropics. Importantly, the impacts will not be distributed evenly and some regions might even benefit from climate change.
For instance, parts of China, Argentina and the US are likely to become more suitable for coffee growing just as the likes of Brazil and Colombia see their land become less suitable. It is likely that many of these changes are now “locked in” at least for the rest of this century, irrespective of the disappointingly sluggish response of global leaders in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Therefore, it will be necessary for us to adapt to the ongoing changes in the tropics, for example by shifting cultivation of specific crops to different regions where climate impacts will be more benign. However, it seems likely that, whatever mitigation measures are adopted, many tropical crops will become scarcer and hence more expensive in the future. In terms of coffee, it might even move from a cheap everyday beverage to a prized treat to be sampled on special occasions, rather like a fine wine.

 

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This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. Information we collect The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number. How we use your information We use the information we collect in various ways, including to: Provide, operate, and maintain our website Improve, personalize, and expand our website Understand and analyze how you use our website Develop new products, services, features, and functionality Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes Send you emails Find and prevent fraud Log Files qahwaworld follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information. Cookies and Web Beacons Like any other website, qahwaworld uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website. 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Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on qahwaworld, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that qahwaworld has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers. Third Party Privacy Policies qahwaworld's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. 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