Dubai – Qahwa World
Futures posted modest increases, while robusta trading remained inactive due to a market holiday in the United Kingdom.
The main support came from the Brazilian currency, which climbed to its highest level in several weeks against the US dollar. A stronger real typically reduces export incentives for Brazilian producers, the world’s largest coffee growers, tightening supply in international markets.
However, price gains remained capped by projections pointing to a widening global coffee surplus, expected to reach around 10 million bags in 2026, significantly higher than the previous year and marking the largest surplus in several years.
At the same time, expectations of a strong crop in Brazil continued to weigh on the market, with estimates suggesting production could exceed 75 million bags in the upcoming season, reinforcing global supply.
Despite these pressures, prices found some support from disruptions in global supply chains following the closure of a key maritime route, which led to higher shipping and insurance costs.
Weather conditions in Brazil also contributed to market support, as key arabica-growing regions recorded below-average rainfall, raising concerns about potential impacts on crop development.
Meanwhile, inventory data showed mixed signals, with robusta stocks declining while arabica inventories increased, reflecting an uneven balance in the market.
Brazil’s coffee exports also declined on a yearly basis, providing additional support to prices.
Overall, expectations of rising global production, along with increasing robusta output and higher exports from major producers such as Vietnam, continue to act as key downward pressures on the market in the period ahead.
