Dubai – Qahwa World
Arabica coffee futures finished the session higher, supported by a notable slowdown in Brazilian export activity and limited rainfall in major producing regions. Meanwhile, robusta prices edged lower as strong supply expectations continued to weigh on the market.
Market support for arabica strengthened after Brazil’s coffee export sector reported a sharp contraction in outbound shipments during November. Export volumes of green coffee dropped significantly compared with the same period last year, signaling tighter near-term availability from the world’s largest producer.
Weather conditions in Brazil added to price support. Rainfall in Minas Gerais, the country’s primary arabica-growing state, remained well below seasonal norms in early December, raising concerns about moisture levels during a critical stage of crop development.
In contrast, robusta prices faced downward pressure amid rising supply from Southeast Asia. Vietnam recorded a substantial increase in coffee exports in November, with cumulative shipments for the year also showing solid growth. These figures reinforced expectations of abundant robusta availability in the global market.
Recent price weakness earlier in the week was driven by revised production forecasts. Brazil’s official crop agency increased its outlook for the 2025 coffee harvest, pointing to higher overall output compared with earlier estimates.
Regulatory developments in Europe also influenced sentiment. Lawmakers approved a postponement of the European Union’s deforestation-related import rules, a move that is expected to allow continued coffee flows from several producing regions and ease short-term supply constraints for European buyers.
Stock movements offered mixed signals. Certified arabica inventories monitored by the ICE exchange rebounded from recent lows, while robusta stock levels declined further. In the United States, coffee inventories remain tight following reduced purchases of Brazilian coffee earlier in the year during a period of trade disruptions.
Looking ahead, production forecasts suggest robusta supplies will remain ample. Vietnam’s coffee output is projected to rise in the upcoming season, potentially reaching its highest level in several years if weather conditions remain favorable.
At the global level, export data indicate a slight slowdown in shipments for the current marketing year. However, international agricultural forecasts continue to point toward record worldwide coffee production in the next season, driven by expanding robusta output despite a modest decline in arabica production.
