Dubai – Qahwa World
Coffee futures closed lower at the end of the week as expectations of stronger global production continued to weigh on sentiment. The market reaction reflects growing confidence that supply conditions may improve in the upcoming seasons, particularly with Brazil at the center of the outlook.
A recent projection from Rabobank indicates that global coffee production could reach 180 million bags in the 2026/27 season, potentially marking a record and representing an increase of around 8 million bags compared with the previous year. The forecast has reinforced a broader shift in market expectations after months dominated by tight supply concerns.
In Brazil, fresh estimates from Conab point to a significant rebound in output for 2026. The agency projects total production at 66.2 million bags, up 17.2% year-on-year. Arabica output is expected to rise more sharply, increasing 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to grow 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.
Weather conditions have contributed to the improved outlook. Data from Somar Meteorologia show that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region, received rainfall above the historical average during mid-February. Adequate moisture during key crop development stages has strengthened expectations for higher yields, adding pressure to prices that have already retreated from recent highs.
Vietnam has also played a role in easing supply concerns. As the world’s leading robusta producer, the country reported a sharp year-on-year increase in coffee exports in January, according to official statistics. Full-year 2025 exports also recorded solid growth. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to reach approximately 1.76 million metric tons, or about 29.4 million bags, reflecting a four-year high. The expansion in Vietnamese output continues to influence the robusta segment in particular.
Exchange-monitored inventories have shown signs of recovery as well. Certified arabica stocks tracked by ICE have risen from their lows reached late last year, while robusta inventories have also moved higher after touching multi-month troughs. The increase in available certified stocks signals improved short-term supply availability.
At the same time, some supply-side developments have provided limited support. Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported a year-on-year decline in January coffee exports. In Colombia, the National Federation of Coffee Growers announced that January production fell sharply compared with the same month last year, tightening availability in the washed arabica segment.
On the global level, the International Coffee Organization has reported a slight decline in coffee exports for the current October–September marketing year. However, the broader outlook remains shaped by expectations of higher output. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projects world coffee production in 2025/26 at nearly 179 million bags, with robusta output increasing while arabica production is forecast to decline modestly. Ending stocks are expected to ease compared with the previous season.
Overall, improved crop prospects in Brazil, expanding robusta production in Vietnam, and recovering inventories are collectively reshaping the global coffee balance, placing downward pressure on prices as the market reassesses supply risks.
