Robusta Coffee Rallies on Vietnam Dry Weather

Coffee prices settled mixed on Friday, May 22, 2026. July robusta coffee futures closed up 1.68 percent, rising sharply amid dry weather in Vietnam that is raising concerns about the country’s robusta coffee crop. July arabica coffee futures closed down 0.38 percent.

Weather forecaster Vaisala reported that recent showers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s main growing region, have been spotty. More rain is needed to aid cherry growth. This supply concern helped drive robusta prices higher.

El Niño Risks and Brazil Crop Outlook

Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are also supporting prices. Coffee trader Commercial said El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, potentially damaging the 2026/27 coffee crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82 percent probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year, with a 67 percent chance of a Super El Niño.

Despite these risks, larger Brazilian crop forecasts have weighed on arabica prices. On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest will increase 12 percent year on year to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group projected a record Brazilian crop of 75.9 million bags.

On March 12, StoneX raised its estimate to a record 75.3 million bags. StoneX also projected the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the largest surplus in six years.

Vietnam Exports and Inventory Trends

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices. On May 9, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first four months of 2026 rose 15.8 percent year on year to 810,000 metric tons.

Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to climb 6 percent to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past two months, which is supportive of coffee prices. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low of 3,631 lots last Friday but recovered to a six week high of 3,968 lots on Friday. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a three month low of 449,567 bags on Friday.

Key Market Data

Other Market Factors

Smaller exports from Brazil are supportive of coffee prices. Last Tuesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has increased shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, raising costs for importers and roasters.

As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3 percent year on year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA Foreign Agriculture Service bi-annual report of December 18 projected world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase 2.0 percent year on year to a record 178.848 million bags, with a 4.7 percent decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a 10.9 percent increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags.

The USDA forecast Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will decline 3.1 percent to 63 million bags and Vietnam’s output will rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to fall 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags.