Cold Snap Threatens Brazil’s 2026 Coffee Crop During Early Flowering
Dubai, 13 August 2025- (Qahwa World) – As Brazil’s 2025 harvest concludes, attention is already turning to the next season — and early signs show potential trouble ahead. Early flowering has begun in several major coffee-growing regions, a stage when trees are especially vulnerable to weather changes. Recent cold temperatures in Minas Gerais and São Paulo have sparked frost concerns, prompting urgent on-the-ground assessments.
Flowering is underway in:
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South of Minas – a high-altitude sub-region in Minas Gerais with dense specialty Arabica plantings, currently slightly behind in development.
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Cerrado Mineiro – a designated coffee-producing area recognized for its dry harvest season and consistent quality.
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São Paulo – including Mogiana, known for its fertile volcanic soils.
Over the past 24 hours, temperatures have fallen sharply. Patrocínio, in Cerrado Mineiro, recorded an early morning low of 1.9°C, with light frost confirmed in parts of the region. Initial reports point to minor visible damage so far. Weather forecasts indicate lows below 10°C across much of Minas Gerais through August 15, with frost risk at 50–70% in higher-altitude zones.
Potential Impact on Brazil’s Supply
While current assessments suggest limited frost damage, agricultural analysts caution that even without visible frost, low temperatures during flowering can reduce fruit set and lower yields. This could tighten Brazil’s 2026 coffee supply — a concern magnified by the recently imposed 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian green coffee. Any further cold fronts in the coming days could escalate risks and push global coffee prices higher.
The next week will be critical in determining how weather conditions will shape Brazil’s production outlook for the year ahead.
