Coffee Prices Soar as Brazil Harvest Slows and Inventories Tighten
- Arabica surged 4.62% to a 6.75-month high.
- Robusta rose 2.64% as supply remains tight.
- Brazil’s harvest is 90% complete, behind 97% last year and the 94% five-year average.
- ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags.
- ICE robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,831 lots.
- Colombia’s earthquake still affects supplies despite partial export resumption.
- El Niño concerns support prices with potential rainfall delays in Brazil.
Coffee prices surged sharply today. Arabica jumped 4.62% to a 6.75-month high. Robusta rose 2.64% as supply remains tight. The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is underpinning prices.
Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported 81.1% of the harvest was complete as of August 14. This is up 7 points from the prior week but still down from 86.1% a year earlier. Safras & Mercado reported on August 14 that Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest was 90% complete as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 94% five-year average. Arabica harvest was 86% complete, behind last year’s 95%.
Inventory Trends: Arabica at 2.75-Year Low
Falling inventories are bullish for arabica prices. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags last Friday. By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta. ICE robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,831 lots today.
| Category | Latest Level | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Arabica inventories | 227,992 bags | 2.75-year low |
| Robusta inventories | 4,831 lots | 8.75-month high |
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Cooxupe harvest (as of Aug 14) | 81.1% |
| Cooxupe year-earlier pace | 86.1% |
| Brazil overall (as of Aug 12) | 90% |
| Previous year (Aug 12) | 97% |
| Five-year average (Aug 12) | 94% |
| Arabica harvest (as of Aug 12) | 86% |
| Arabica harvest previous year | 95% |
| Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended Aug 16) | 0.6 mm (11% of average) |
Colombia Earthquake Still Affecting Supplies
Prices also have support from the devastating earthquake earlier this month in Colombia. Colombia is the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans. Among the areas hit by the 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia’s production.
Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through Buenaventura port, which handles most of its coffee exports. However, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited. According to a Bloomberg report, the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities.
El Niño Concerns Support Prices
Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, setting the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.
Below-Normal Rainfall May Speed Up Harvest
Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should allow the harvest pace to speed up, a bearish factor for prices. Somar Meteorologia reported last Monday that 0.6 mm of rain, or 11% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 16 in Minas Gerais, the country’s main arabica-growing region.
Vietnam Exports Continue to Surge
Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On August 2, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to July rose 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).
USDA Forecast: Record Production
The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year, although robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.
