Global journalist and coffee expert Maja Wallengren continues her field reporting from Southern Minas, Brazil, shedding light on an escalating crisis threatening the world’s coffee supply chain. Reporting from the massive Japy warehouse complex, part of Cooxupé, the world’s largest coffee cooperative, Wallengren revealed a sharp decline in coffee stocks and catastrophic losses that are weakening the industry and pushing it to the brink of collapse.

Wallengren, writing on her platform Spilling The Bean, highlighted the worsening situation. In 2024, Brazil produced approximately 9 million bags of coffee, of which more than 5.5 million were exported, while most of the remaining stock was sold in the domestic market. However, only about one million bags remain, and they are expected to be sold and shipped entirely by May 2025, reflecting an unprecedented crisis in coffee availability.

Reports indicate that Brazilian farmers are facing immense difficulties in sustaining their livelihoods. With small agricultural plots averaging between 0.5 and 0.7 hectares, estimates suggest that 60-70% of Brazil’s primary coffee-producing regions are now partially or fully abandoned. At the same time, 85-90% of coffee-growing areas are suffering from severe climatic disasters, leading to global losses estimated at 20-22 million bags for the 2024-2025 season, with further losses of 18-20 million bags projected for the 2025-2026 harvest.

Wallengren’s tour of Southern Minas, Brazil’s traditional coffee heartland, unveiled the severity of the situation. Even in regions that typically perform well, Cooxupé reports losses ranging between 10-15% at best, while most farms face losses between 30-50% or higher. Wallengren described the coffee trees as “visibly weak and struggling,” highlighting the magnitude of the disaster.

During visits to municipalities such as Nova Resende, one of the top three Arabica-producing regions, farmers expressed unprecedented despair. An 82-year-old farmer stated, “In my lifetime, I have never seen the crop in such a poor state.” Wallengren noted that farmers are now using new terminology to describe the 2025 harvest, such as “bad” and “completely disastrous,” reflecting the prevailing sense of hopelessness among producers.

Wallengren warns that the best-case scenario for Brazil’s Arabica crop in 2025 points to a maximum production of 28 million bags, with more realistic estimates ranging between 24-26 million bags. Total production of Arabica and Robusta is expected to remain below 38-40 million bags. These figures represent a sharp decline, with no hope of full recovery before 2028-2030, placing Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, in a challenging position.

She explained that the coffee supply chain is in a state of “free-fall collapse,” with stocks depleting faster than anticipated. The challenges are exacerbated by climate change, the small size of agricultural plots, and economic pressures that deepen the crisis. Wallengren emphasized that the crisis extends beyond Brazil, with its impact felt worldwide, as approximately 50 million families globally depend on coffee farming.

“The world is facing a severe coffee shortage,” Wallengren stated. She added that the crisis underscores the urgent need for sustainable practices, innovation, and global collaboration to ensure the continuity of an industry that supports millions of families and is enjoyed by billions of people daily.

In conclusion, Wallengren remarked, “So far, the disaster does not fully capture the scale of the problem. Farmers are bracing for the worst and praying to mitigate the damage in the coming months.”