China’s Coffee Consumption Surges 150%, Reshaping Global Coffee Markets

China’s coffee consumption has skyrocketed by nearly 150% over the past decade, transforming the nation into a pivotal player in global coffee markets, according to a new report by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Forecasts indicate China will consume 6.3 million 60-kilogram bags in 2024/25, up from just 2.5 million bags a decade ago. This surge, driven by urban professionals and a booming café culture, is reshaping trade flows and production strategies worldwide.

Once a tea-dominated market, China’s younger, urban population is increasingly opting for coffee, particularly premium varieties. Domestic production, concentrated in Yunnan Province’s high-altitude regions, remains limited at 1.9 million bags, forcing China to rely on imports to meet 70% of demand. Notably, imports of green (unroasted) coffee have surged from 900,000 bags in 2014/15 to a forecast 3.6 million bags in 2024/25, with Brazil and Colombia now overtaking Vietnam and Indonesia as top suppliers.

“Consumers are moving beyond instant coffee to specialty brews, often sourced from local roasters using imported or domestic beans,” the report states. Retail chains, bolstered by online delivery platforms, are expanding beyond megacities like Beijing and Shanghai into smaller hubs such as Chengdu and Hangzhou, making coffee more accessible and affordable.

World coffee production is projected to rise 6.9 million bags to 174.9 million in 2024/25, driven by recoveries in Vietnam (+2.6 million bags) and Indonesia (+2.8 million bags). However, ending stocks are expected to drop to 20.9 million bags, the lowest in years, signaling tighter global supplies.

• Brazil, the top producer, faces stagnant output (66.4 million bags) due to drought, pushing exports down 2.6 million bags.
• Vietnam’s rebound to 30.1 million bags comes as farmers prioritize harvesting amid higher prices, despite erratic weather.
• Indonesia’s Robusta production is set to jump 2.7 million bags to 9.5 million, recovering from last year’s rain-hit crop.

China’s import growth mirrors broader trends. The European Union remains the largest importer (45 million bags), while U.S. imports are forecast to rise 800,000 bags to 22.3 million. Global consumption is projected to hit 168.1 million bags, with the EU, U.S., and China accounting for the largest gains.

However, challenges persist. Roasted coffee imports remain low due to freshness concerns, and soluble coffee demand has plateaued. Meanwhile, climate disruptions and pest outbreaks—like Colombia’s coffee cherry borer scare—highlight vulnerabilities in supply chains.

“China’s coffee boom is no longer a niche trend—it’s a structural shift,” said Tony Halstead, a USDA analyst. “Producers must adapt to higher quality demands and volatile weather, while traders eye tightening stocks.”

As global coffee culture evolves, China’s blend of domestic ambition and import dependency will continue to stir the pot in markets from São Paulo to Sumatra.