International Coffee Organization Releases October 2026 Report
- The International Coffee Organization released its Coffee Market Report for October 2026.
- The composite indicator averaged 261.26 US cents per pound, down 0.3% from September.
- Colombian Milds rose 0.5% to 357.85 cents per pound.
- Other Milds gained 1.7% and Brazilian Naturals added 1.5%.
- Robustas fell 2.0% to 164.19 cents per pound.
- New York certified stocks dropped to 0.23 million bags, the lowest since January 2002.
- London certified stocks rose to 1.13 million bags, the highest since July 2025.
The International Coffee Organization released its Coffee Market Report for October 2026. The report showed the composite indicator holding at a relatively firm level. However, this stability hid two opposing movements. Arabica prices increased while robusta prices declined.
This divergence reflects different market conditions. Tight certified stocks supported arabica prices. In contrast, improving supply availability weighed on robusta prices.
The Composite Indicator: Apparent Stability, Real Divergence
The composite indicator averaged 261.26 US cents per pound in October 2026. That is a 0.3% decrease from September 2026. Prices ranged between 251.28 and 272.34 cents per pound. The indicator closed at 252.32 cents on October 30. That was 3.5% below the September close of 261.60 cents.
Group reweighting on October 1 lowered the indicator by 2.48 cents per pound. Meanwhile, volatility fell to 8.7%, which is 1.3 percentage points below September.
| Group | Price (US cents/lb) | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Colombian Milds | 357.85 | +0.5% |
| Other Milds | 334.99 | +1.7% |
| Brazilian Naturals | 294.49 | +1.5% |
| Robustas | 164.19 | −2.0% |
| New York futures | 285.10 | +1.6% |
| London futures | 152.56 | −1.1% |
The divergence also appeared in futures markets. Arabica futures in New York rose 1.6%. In contrast, robusta futures in London fell 1.1%. The arbitrage between the two markets widened 4.9% to 132.54 cents per pound.
Exports: Robusta Leads the Growth
Global green bean exports reached 10.19 million bags in September 2026. That represents a 5.8% increase from 9.63 million bags in September 2025. This marked the fourth consecutive month of positive growth.
Green robusta exports rose 15.7% to 4.07 million bags. Colombian Milds also rose 12.6% to 1.19 million bags. In contrast, Brazilian Naturals fell 2.8% to 3.32 million bags. Other Milds declined 1.7% to 1.61 million bags.
Total green arabica exports reached 6.13 million bags, up 0.2%. Meanwhile, exports of all forms of coffee fell 0.7% to 11.55 million bags. The decline came mainly from lower soluble coffee shipments.
| Group | Volume (million bags) | Annual Change |
|---|---|---|
| Green Robustas | 50.1 | +12.3% |
| Other Milds | 25.06 | +9.5% |
| Colombian Milds | 12.24 | −11.0% |
| Brazilian Naturals | 36.52 | −11.0% |
| All green beans | 123.93 | +1.3% |
The robusta share of green bean exports exceeded 40% for the first time on record. It reached 40.4% in coffee year 2025/26. Vietnam was the main driver, with robusta exports up 26.7% to 26.37 million bags.
Certified Stocks: Two Opposite Directions
US certified arabica stocks fell to 0.23 million bags. That level was recorded at the end of October 2026. It is the lowest month-end level since January 2002. Stocks had stood at 0.26 million bags at the end of September.
In contrast, London certified robusta stocks rose to 1.13 million bags. This is the highest level since July 2025. Stocks had stood at 0.87 million bags at the end of September. As a result, the arabica curve continues to benefit from scarce supply.
Price Drivers in October 2026
Prices responded to several factors. The Brazilian real supported prices until October 21. Then it turned bearish after the election results. Tight stocks also supported arabica. Preparations for the European Union deforestation regulation shaped shipment flows. Weather had a two-sided effect.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported an 83% chance of a historic-strength El Niño. That probability extends through the January to March 2027 period.
Global Balance: First Surplus in Five Years
World production reached about 183.6 million bags in coffee year 2025/26. Arabica output rose to 104.4 million bags. Robusta output also rose to 79.2 million bags. In contrast, consumption fell to 180.6 million bags.
This left a surplus of 3 million bags. It is the first global surplus in five years. Nevertheless, New York certified stocks stayed at historically low levels.
