Dubai – Qahwa World
Coffee market prices ended Friday’s sessions with a significant decline, as March Arabica coffee contracts dropped by 3.84% to close at -11.85, while March Robusta coffee fell by 1.75% to close at -67. This downward trend persisted throughout the week, with Arabica hitting a 6-month low and Robusta reaching its lowest level in nearly 6 months, pressured by reports confirming robust global supplies.
The Brazilian crop forecasting agency, Conab, reported that coffee production in Brazil for 2026 is expected to rise by 17.2%, reaching a record 66.2 million bags. This includes a projected 23.2% surge in Arabica production to 44.1 million bags and a 6.3% increase in Robusta to 22.1 million bags. In Vietnam, the world’s leading Robusta producer, exports in January jumped by 38.3%, adding further bearish pressure on prices, especially after 2025 exports had already risen by 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons.
Additionally, above-average rainfall in Brazil eased drought concerns. Minas Gerais, the largest Arabica-growing region, received 69.8 mm of rain in the week ending January 30, representing 117% of the historical average. Vietnam’s production for the 2025/2026 season is also projected to climb 6% to a 4-year high. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored inventories have begun to recover from previous lows; Arabica stocks rose from a nearly 2-year low to a 3-month high, and Robusta inventories showed a similar recovery.
Despite some supportive signals for prices, such as the Brazilian Trade Ministry reporting a 42.4% drop in January exports and the International Coffee Organization (ICO) noting a slight 0.3% dip in global shipments, the overall outlook remains focused on surplus. The USDA’s bi-annual report projects that world coffee production for 2025/2026 will increase by 2% to a record 178.8 million bags, with a significant 10.9% rise in Robusta output, even as total ending stocks are forecasted to decline by 5.4%.
