Dubai – Qahwa World
Coffee futures declined sharply on Tuesday, with both arabica and robusta posting significant losses. Arabica reached its lowest level in about three weeks, while robusta dropped to its weakest nearby level in roughly eight months.
The recent downward trend is mainly linked to expectations of a large coffee harvest in Brazil. Updated projections for the 2026 to 2027 season indicate production exceeding 75 million bags, marking a strong increase compared to earlier estimates and last year’s output.
Global supply expectations are also shifting. Forecasts indicate a widening surplus in 2026, with estimates rising sharply from the previous year and pointing to the largest surplus in several years.
Vietnam, the world’s leading robusta producer, is adding further pressure on prices. Export volumes have increased notably, including strong growth in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year. Annual export data for 2025 also showed solid gains. Production is expected to rise as well, reaching the highest level in about four years.
Shipping disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have created additional challenges for the market. Higher freight costs, insurance expenses, and fuel prices are raising costs for importers and roasters despite the overall improvement in supply expectations.
Weather conditions in Brazil are providing some support to prices. Key growing regions such as Minas Gerais have received less rainfall than usual, which may affect crop development if dry conditions continue.
Inventory data shows mixed signals. Robusta stock levels have declined to multi month lows, suggesting tighter short term availability. In contrast, arabica inventories have increased, adding pressure on prices.
Brazil’s export performance has also shown some weakness. Shipments of green coffee fell significantly in February compared to the previous year, and total exports also recorded a noticeable decline.
Earlier in the year, coffee prices had already come under pressure. Arabica dropped sharply in February, reaching its lowest level in more than a year as expectations for strong production increased. Official forecasts in Brazil indicate higher output for both arabica and robusta.
At the global level, production is expected to reach a record in the 2026 to 2027 season, increasing by several million bags compared to the previous year.
Despite the overall bearish outlook, some tightening factors remain. Global export data shows a slight decline during the current marketing year, while ending stocks are expected to decrease modestly by the end of the 2025 to 2026 season.
The coffee market remains driven by the balance between strong supply expectations and localized constraints, with attention focused on weather conditions, export trends, and inventory levels.
