Dubai – Qahwa World
Coffee markets fell on Wednesday amid favorable weather forecasts in Brazil and rising inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
May arabica futures (KCK26) were down 8.70 points (-2.94%), while May ICE robusta (RMK26) declined 137 points (-3.71%). Showers expected in key Brazilian coffee-growing regions supported the recent price drop.
ICE data shows that arabica inventories, which fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags in November, recovered to a five-month high of 564,626 bags on Tuesday. Robusta inventories also rose to a 3.5-month peak before falling slightly to 4,563 lots as of Wednesday.
You may like:Brazil’s Specialty Coffee Sector Gains Global Momentum
Coffee prices had partially retraced last week’s rally triggered by the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which increased global shipping rates, fuel, and insurance costs.
Brazil’s exports also influenced the market. According to Cecafe, February green coffee shipments fell by 27% year-on-year, while the Trade Ministry reported a 17.4% decline to 142,000 metric tons. Conversely, recent rains in Minas Gerais—the country’s largest arabica-producing state—amounted to 14.9 mm last week, about 35% of the historical average, offering some support to crop expectations.
Earlier in February, coffee prices hit multi-month lows amid forecasts of a record Brazilian crop. Conab projected Brazil’s 2026 coffee output at 66.2 million bags, with arabica rising 23.2% to 44.1 million bags and robusta up 6.3% to 22.1 million bags. Global production for 2026/27 is expected to reach 180 million bags, according to Rabobank.
You may like:Coffee Markets Rise Amid Middle East Shipping Disruptions
Vietnam’s coffee exports further pressured robusta prices. The National Statistics Office reported a 14% year-on-year rise to 366,000 MT for January–February 2026, while 2025 exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million MT. Production in 2025/26 is forecast to reach 1.76 million MT, a four-year high.
Despite these factors, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) noted a slight 0.3% year-on-year decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects 2025/26 global production at 178.848 million bags, with arabica down 4.7% to 95.515 million bags and robusta up 10.9% to 83.333 million bags. Brazil’s production is expected to fall 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam rises 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks are forecast to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags.
Analysts say the combination of Brazilian rainfall, rising ICE inventories, and record production in Vietnam is likely to maintain downward pressure on coffee prices in the near term.
