Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 22, 2026
Drier Weather in Brazil Aids Coffee Harvest and Weighs on Prices
Key Takeaways:
- Arabica prices fell 0.73% and robusta fell 1.76% to a one-week low, as drier weather in Brazil is expected to allow the harvest to resume.
- The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eases supply disruptions, lowering shipping, insurance, and fuel costs.
- ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-month low of 394,267 bags.
- El Niño concerns support prices, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year.
- USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y).
- Vietnam’s exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, with production expected at 29.4 million bags (+6%).
- Global production in 2025/26 is projected at 178.85 million bags (+2.0%), with ending stocks falling 5.4%.
Coffee prices came under pressure today, with robusta falling sharply to a one-week low. The decline came as expectations of drier weather in Brazil raised hopes that the country’s coffee harvest can resume. September arabica futures fell 0.73%, while July robusta futures dropped 1.76%.
Prices had rallied to five-week highs last Thursday amid persistent rain in Brazil, which delayed the harvest. However, improving weather conditions are now reversing that trend, as harvesting activities are expected to accelerate in key coffee regions.
Drier Weather Resumes Harvest and Pressures Prices
Meteorological agencies forecast drier weather across Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions in the coming days, allowing farmers to resume harvesting activities that had been halted by heavy rains. This development is expected to increase supply in global markets, especially with expectations of a bumper harvest this year. The improved weather conditions have led to a decline in prices, as traders took advantage of the favorable weather to accelerate profit-taking.
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Eases Supply Disruptions
Authorities announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, easing supply disruptions that have affected the market in recent months. The reopening is expected to lower shipping rates, insurance premiums, fuel costs, and fertilizer prices, thereby reducing overall costs for importers and roasters. This development represents an additional bearish factor, as lower logistics costs remove some of the support that had been underpinning prices during the closure.
| Indicator | Value | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| September Arabica Futures | -0.73% | Decline on improving weather |
| July Robusta Futures | -1.76% | One-week low |
| ICE Arabica Stocks | 394,267 bags | 27-month low |
| ICE Robusta Stocks | 4,032 lots | 2.25-month high |
| Strait of Hormuz | Reopened | Easing supply disruptions |
Exchange Inventories at Multi-Year Lows
ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to 394,267 bags last Thursday, the lowest level in 27 months. This decline in inventories supports prices and reflects tight physical supplies. In contrast, ICE robusta inventories jumped from a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 to 4,032 lots, the highest level in 2.25 months.
El Niño Concerns Support Prices and Threaten Next Year’s Crop
Concerns over the impact of an El Niño weather pattern on Brazil’s next coffee crop continue to support prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño could delay the arrival of seasonal rains during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September and October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could be the strongest on record. The Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed on June 10 that El Niño conditions have formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.
Large Crops Continue to Weigh on the Market
Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported on June 11 that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May to 2.73 million bags.
Vietnam Expands Exports and Production, Adding Pressure
Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continues to increase exports, adding further pressure on prices. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office on June 2, coffee exports during the first five months of 2026 reached 922,000 metric tons, up 7.9% from the same period a year earlier. Full-year exports in 2025 rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.
Global Production Outlook and Inventories Point to a Delicate Balance
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports during the current marketing year (October–September) totaled 138.66 million bags, slightly down 0.3% from the previous year. Meanwhile, the USDA’s FAS projects global coffee production in 2025/26 to reach a record 178.85 million bags, up 2% year-on-year. The forecast includes arabica production of 95.52 million bags (-4.7%) and robusta production of 83.33 million bags (+10.9%). The USDA estimates Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop at 63 million bags, down 3.1% from the previous year, while Vietnam’s production is expected to rise 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks are forecast to decline by 5.4% to 20.15 million bags in 2025/26, compared with 21.31 million bags in 2024/25.
| Indicator | 2025/26 | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Global Coffee Production | 178.85 million bags | +2.0% |
| Arabica Production | 95.52 million bags | -4.7% |
| Robusta Production | 83.33 million bags | +10.9% |
| Ending Stocks | 20.15 million bags | -5.4% |
Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements
Q: Why did coffee prices decline today?
A: Due to expectations of drier weather in Brazil allowing the harvest to resume, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz easing supply disruptions.
Q: How does the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz affect coffee prices?
A: It is expected to lower shipping, insurance, and fuel costs, reducing costs for importers and roasters and putting downward pressure on prices.
Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?
A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 394,267 bags (a 27-month low), while robusta stocks rose to 4,032 lots (a 2.25-month high).
Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?
A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.
Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?
A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.
The coffee market remains caught between supportive factors (El Niño concerns, falling inventories) and bearish factors (improving weather in Brazil, Strait of Hormuz reopening, record crop expectations, rising Vietnamese production). Improving weather conditions and the reopening of the strait add additional downward pressure, though El Niño concerns and declining inventories still provide some support. All eyes remain on weather developments in Brazil and inventory trends to determine the next direction for prices.
Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).
All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.
Publication date: June 22, 2026
