Dubai – Qahwa World
Coffee futures moved lower at the end of the week, with both arabica and robusta contracts posting notable losses. Arabica dropped to its lowest level in about a week, while robusta also weakened.
The decline was linked in part to improving conditions in global shipping. Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened helped calm earlier concerns about disruptions, suggesting smoother trade flows and reducing anxiety over supply constraints.
Earlier in the week, arabica had already been under pressure, touching a one-month low as expectations grew for a strong harvest in Brazil. Several industry forecasts point toward a record crop in the 2026/27 season, with estimates clustering above 75 million bags. Some analysts also anticipate a significant expansion in the global coffee surplus, potentially reaching its highest level in several years.
Meanwhile, Vietnam continues to play a major role on the supply side. The country, the leading producer of robusta coffee, has reported rising export volumes. Shipments in the first quarter increased compared to the same period last year, and full-year exports have also shown solid growth. Production in the current season is expected to climb to a multi-year high, adding further pressure to prices.
Despite this broader supply outlook, some factors are offering limited support. Inventories of robusta monitored by the ICE exchange have declined to their lowest level in over a year, indicating tighter availability in certified stocks.
In Brazil, export data has been mixed. Recent figures show a drop in shipments compared to last year, which may lend some support to prices. Weather is also being closely watched, as below-average rainfall in key growing regions like Minas Gerais could affect crop yields.
On the global stage, export volumes have edged slightly lower in the current marketing year, according to international data. However, overall production is still expected to rise in the 2025/26 season, driven by gains in robusta output despite a projected decline in arabica production.
Looking ahead, forecasts suggest Brazil’s total production may ease slightly, while Vietnam’s output is likely to increase. At the same time, global ending stocks are expected to shrink, reflecting ongoing shifts in supply and demand dynamics.
