Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, July 2026
Date: August 2026According to recent reports, coffee prices experienced the largest monthly surge in 2026.
Coffee Prices Record Largest Monthly Surge Since 2021
Executive Summary
- The ICO composite price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.
- Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta: Colombian Milds +18.1%, Brazilian Naturals +17.9%, Robustas +9.1%.
- Record daily gains of 8.2% (July 6) and 9.3% (July 9) marked the largest increases in 21 years.
- El Niño probability reached 97% through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event.
- Brazil’s harvest was only 64% complete by July 15, below the 5‑year average of 70%, due to wet conditions.
- US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024.
- London Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags, widening the price gap between the two varieties.
Global coffee prices recorded their largest monthly increase since 2021 in July 2026. The ICO Composite Indicator Price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents per pound.
Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta. Colombian Milds increased 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb. Other Milds increased 16.5% to 358.65 US cents/lb. Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.
The price rally was driven by several factors. Weather-related concerns in Brazil, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tightening Arabica supplies all played a role.
On July 6, the composite price rose 8.2% in a single day. On July 9, it rose another 9.3%. These were the largest daily increases observed in 21 years.
El Niño fears intensified significantly. On July 9, the US Climate Prediction Center reported a 97% probability that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027. There was also an 81% probability of a very strong event during October-December 2026.
This outlook pointed to increased risks of regional rainfall and temperature anomalies. These could affect coffee production in Asia and South America in late 2026 and 2027.
Weather factors were a key driver. Unusually wet conditions in parts of Brazil disrupted harvesting and drying operations. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s harvest was only 64% complete as of July 15. This compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%.
Wet conditions also caused uneven maturation. Multiple flowering cycles led to cherries at different stages of ripeness. This required more selective picking and sorting, making harvesting slower and more costly.
US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags in July. This was their lowest level since January 2024. The decline signaled significantly tighter immediately deliverable supplies of Arabica.
In contrast, London certified Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags. This divergence widened the price gap between Arabica and Robusta and increased the price differentials.
Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 0.98 million bags on July 31. This signaled limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions.
Table 1: Key Price Movements (US cents/lb)
| Indicator | June 2026 | July 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICO Composite | 248.90 | 287.26 | +15.4% |
| Colombian Milds | 324.60 | 383.39 | +18.1% |
| Brazilian Naturals | 272.01 | 320.69 | +17.9% |
| Robustas | 169.39 | 184.78 | +9.1% |
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did coffee prices rise in July 2026?
The ICO composite price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents/lb, the largest monthly gain since 2021.
What caused the price surge?
El Niño fears (97% probability), wet weather in Brazil slowing the harvest, and falling Arabica stocks were the main drivers.
How did Arabica and Robusta prices perform differently?
Arabica prices rose faster (+18.1% for Colombian Milds) while Robusta rose 9.1%, widening the price gap.
What happened to certified coffee stocks?
US Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags (lowest since Jan 2024), while London Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags.
What is the El Niño outlook?
There is a 97% probability of El Niño persisting through early spring 2027, with an 81% chance of a very strong event in late 2026.
Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, July 2026 | Date: August 2026
