DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD
Coffee futures fell sharply on Tuesday, pressured by improving global supply expectations and stronger production forecasts from key producing countries.
March arabica coffee contracts dropped 5.15%, settling at a 7.25-month low. March robusta futures declined 4.44%, marking a six-month low. The downturn extends a three-week slide driven largely by expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil.
According to Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab, the country’s 2026 coffee production is projected to rise 17.2% year-over-year to a record 66.2 million bags. Arabica output is expected to increase 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to climb 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.
Weather conditions have also supported the bearish outlook. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais — Brazil’s largest arabica-growing region — received 72.6 mm of rainfall during the week ending February 6, representing 113% of the historical average.
Additional pressure came from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer. Data from Vietnam’s National Statistics Office showed January coffee exports surged 38.3% year-over-year to 198,000 metric tons. Full-year 2025 exports rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to increase 6% to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), the highest level in four years.
Rising exchange inventories have also weighed on prices. Intercontinental Exchange-monitored arabica stocks rebounded from a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags in mid-November to 461,829 bags in early January. Robusta inventories likewise recovered from a 13-month low of 4,012 lots in December to 4,662 lots in late January.
On the supportive side, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported a 42.4% year-over-year decline in January coffee exports to 141,000 metric tons. Meanwhile, production in Colombia — the world’s second-largest arabica producer — fell 34% in January to 893,000 bags, according to the National Federation of Coffee Growers.
Globally, supply signals remain mixed. The International Coffee Organization reported that exports for the current marketing year (October–September) slipped 0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags.
In its latest bi-annual outlook, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service projected that global coffee production for 2025/26 will rise 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica output is forecast to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production is expected to jump 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.
The agency also estimates that global ending stocks for 2025/26 will decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, compared with 21.307 million bags in 2024/25 — suggesting that despite short-term pressure, underlying supply dynamics remain closely balanced.
