Dubai – Qahwa World
Coffee futures moved higher, supported by growing concerns over global supply disruptions and tightening inventories. Arabica and robusta contracts both posted gains, with robusta showing stronger momentum.
A key driver behind the price increase is rising tension around the Strait of Hormuz. Reports of shipping disruptions have heightened concerns about global trade flows, leading to increased freight costs, insurance premiums, and fuel expenses. These factors are adding pressure on coffee importers and roasters, contributing to upward price movement.
Robusta prices are receiving additional support from declining exchange inventories, which have dropped to their lowest level in over a year. This signals tighter short-term availability in the market.
However, expectations of a large upcoming harvest in Brazil are limiting stronger price rallies. Several industry forecasts point to a record crop for the 2026/27 season, with projections consistently above 75 million bags. At the same time, estimates suggest a significant global surplus could emerge in 2026, potentially the largest in several years.
Vietnam’s export performance is also weighing on the market, particularly for robusta. Shipments have increased notably in early 2026, following strong export growth in the previous year. Production in Vietnam is also expected to rise, reaching multi-year highs, which could further ease supply constraints.
On the other hand, reduced exports from Brazil are offering some support to prices. Recent data shows a decline in shipments compared to last year, tightening near-term availability in the global market.
Weather conditions in Brazil remain another important factor. Below-average rainfall in key growing regions, particularly Minas Gerais, has raised concerns about crop yields, adding a bullish element to price outlooks.
Looking at the broader picture, global export volumes have shown slight weakness, while production forecasts indicate modest overall growth. Arabica output is expected to decline, while robusta production is projected to increase significantly. Meanwhile, global coffee inventories are forecast to shrink, suggesting that supply pressures may persist despite higher production in some regions.
