Arabica Prices Rise as Colombian Earthquake Disrupts Supplies
- September arabica surged 1.04% to a 5-week high on Tuesday.
- A 7.4 magnitude earthquake hit Colombia’s coffee-growing provinces on Monday.
- Caldas and Risaralda, accounting for 25% of Colombia’s production, were affected.
- Maersk temporarily suspended terminal operations in Buenaventura port.
- ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 241,838 bags.
- ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.75-month high of 4,352 lots.
- USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27.
Arabica coffee settled sharply higher on Tuesday. September arabica closed up 3.45 cents, gaining 1.04% to a 5-week nearest-futures high. September robusta closed down 24 points, a decline of 0.63%. Prices settled mixed as diverging factors drove the two markets in opposite directions.
Arabica rallied on Tuesday amid concerns that a massive earthquake that hit Colombia on Monday will disrupt coffee supplies from the country. Colombia is the world’s second-largest producer of arabica coffee beans.
Colombian Earthquake Disrupts Coffee Production
Among the areas hit by Monday’s 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda. These provinces account for about a quarter of Colombia’s production. The earthquake has raised concerns about damage to coffee infrastructure and potential supply disruptions.
Shipping firm Maersk said Tuesday that terminal operations in Buenaventura have been “temporarily suspended.” Buenaventura handles most of Colombia’s coffee exports. Additionally, inland road closures and traffic restrictions due to the earthquake may impact cargo movements.
| Factor | Impact |
|---|---|
| Colombian earthquake (7.4 magnitude) | Affected Caldas & Risaralda (25% of production) |
| Buenaventura port operations | Suspended by Maersk |
| Inland road closures | Impact on cargo movements |
| ICE arabica inventories | 2.5-year low (241,838 bags) |
| Brazil harvest pace | 67.3% vs 74.2% last year |
Inventory Trends: Arabica Low, Robusta High
Rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee. ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.75-month high of 4,352 lots on Tuesday. By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 241,838 bags on Tuesday. This tight supply situation provides strong support for arabica prices.
| Category | Latest Level | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Arabica inventories | 241,838 bags | 2.5-year low |
| Robusta inventories | 4,352 lots | 4.75-month high |
Brazil Harvest and Weather
Arabica also has support due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest. The harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 67.3% complete as of July 31. This is behind the year-earlier pace of 74.2%. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%.
Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should allow for the harvest pace to speed up. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 5.8 mm of rain, or 92% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 9 in Brazil’s Minas Gerais. This is the country’s main arabica-growing region.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Cooxupe harvest (as of July 31) | 67.3% |
| Cooxupe year-earlier pace | 74.2% |
| Brazil overall (as of July 15) | 64% |
| Previous year (July 15) | 77% |
| Five-year average (July 15) | 70% |
| Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended Aug 9) | 5.8 mm (92% of avg) |
USDA Forecast: Record Production
The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags. The increase is mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year. However, robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.
El Niño Concerns Support Prices
Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil. This September and October is when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.
Vietnam Exports Continue to Surge
Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On August 2, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to July rose 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).
