Author: Qahwa World – Quito
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (simulated based on regional data)
Date: May 23, 2026

Ecuador Coffee Output Rises to 3.6 Million Bags in 2026

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service office in Quito forecasts Ecuador coffee production for marketing year 2026/2027 at 3.6 million 60 kg bags, a 5.9% increase from the revised 2025/2026 estimate of 3.4 million bags. The increase is driven by improved yields, favorable weather in key growing regions, and continued investment in farm renovation.

Arabica production is forecast at 2.1 million bags, while Robusta production is estimated at 1.5 million bags. The shift toward higher-value Arabica continues, supported by growing demand from specialty roasters in the United States and Europe.

Total harvested area is estimated at 310,000 hectares, up slightly from 305,000 hectares in 2025/2026. The average yield is projected at 1.16 tons per hectare, reflecting gradual improvements in agronomic practices and the use of disease-resistant varieties.

Exports are forecast at 3.2 million bags in 2026/2027, up 4.9% from the previous year. The United States remains the largest market, accounting for approximately 35% of total exports, followed by Germany, Belgium, and Italy.

Domestic coffee consumption is estimated at 320,000 bags, with slow but steady growth driven by expanding coffee shop culture in Quito and Guayaquil. Soluble coffee accounts for about 60% of domestic consumption, while roasted and ground coffee is gaining popularity among younger consumers.

Production Trends and Regional Distribution

Ecuador’s coffee production is concentrated in two main regions. Arabica is primarily grown in the Andean highlands, particularly in Loja, El Oro, and Zamora Chinchipe provinces. Robusta is cultivated in the lowland coastal areas of Manabí, Los Ríos, and Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas.

The Loja region, known for its high-altitude Arabica, has seen significant investment in specialty coffee production. Farmers are increasingly adopting shade-grown practices and pursuing certifications such as Rainforest Alliance and Fairtrade.

Robusta production remains stable but faces pressure from lower international prices and competition from larger producers like Vietnam and Brazil. However, Ecuadorian Robusta is known for its good cup quality and is used in blends and soluble coffee production.

Table 1: Ecuador Coffee Production, Supply and Distribution (1,000 60 kg bags)

Item	2024/2025	2025/2026	2026/2027
Planted Area (1,000 HA)	315	318	320
Harvested Area (1,000 HA)	300	305	310
Arabica Production (1,000 bags)	1,850	2,000	2,100
Robusta Production (1,000 bags)	1,400	1,420	1,500
Total Production (1,000 bags)	3,250	3,420	3,600
Total Imports (1,000 bags)	50	55	60
Total Exports (1,000 bags)	2,900	3,050	3,200
Domestic Consumption (1,000 bags)	300	310	320
Ending Stocks (1,000 bags)	100	115	140

Challenges Facing Ecuador’s Coffee Sector

Ecuador’s coffee producers face several challenges. Climate variability remains a significant risk. The El Niño phenomenon can cause excessive rainfall in coastal Robusta areas and drought in highland Arabica zones.

Rising input costs, particularly fertilizers and labor, have squeezed farmer margins. Fertilizer prices increased by approximately 25% in 2025 due to global supply disruptions. Labor costs have risen as workers migrate to urban areas or seek employment in other sectors.

Access to credit for smallholders remains limited. Many farmers rely on informal lenders or intermediaries, which reduces their profitability. The government, through the National Coffee Council (COFENAC), has attempted to provide preferential loans for plantation renovation, but coverage remains insufficient.

Quality concerns have historically limited Ecuador’s access to premium markets. However, recent initiatives to promote voluntary quality certification are gaining traction. Exporters can now obtain Certificates of Quality for their shipments, helping differentiate Ecuadorian coffee in international markets.

Exports and Key Markets

The United States is Ecuador’s largest coffee export destination, accounting for approximately 35% of total shipments. European markets, particularly Germany, Belgium, and Italy, together absorb about 30% of exports. Emerging Asian markets, including South Korea and China, are growing slowly but remain small.

In MY 2024/2025, Ecuador exported approximately 2.9 million bags. The average export price was around $4,200 per ton, slightly below regional averages due to the higher proportion of Robusta in the export mix.

There is growing interest in Ecuadorian specialty coffee from European roasters. The Loja region, in particular, has gained recognition for its high-altitude Arabica with distinctive floral and fruity notes. Several cooperatives have successfully established direct trade relationships with buyers in Germany and the United Kingdom.

Ecuador also imports small quantities of coffee, primarily from Peru and Colombia, to meet domestic demand for lower-priced blends and soluble coffee production. Imports are forecast at 60,000 bags in 2026/2027.

Policy and Institutional Framework

The National Coffee Council (COFENAC) is the primary institution responsible for implementing coffee policy in Ecuador. Its mandate includes promoting modernization of the coffee industry, managing price stabilization mechanisms, and facilitating access to credit for small and medium producers.

COFENAC operates a loan program through private banks, offering preferential interest rates for plantation rehabilitation, renovation, and maintenance. The program focuses on improving quality and yields rather than expanding area. However, budget constraints have limited its reach.

The Ecuadorian Coffee Exporters Association (ANECAFE) and the Export and Investment Corporation (CORPEI) have jointly promoted voluntary quality certificates for export coffee. While not compulsory, these certificates help exporters access premium markets and command higher prices.

Ecuador is also working toward compliance with the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). The government has begun mapping coffee-growing areas and training producers on traceability requirements. However, progress has been slower than in larger producing countries due to limited resources.

Frequently Asked Questions

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Author: Qahwa World – Quito | Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (simulated based on regional trends) | Date: May 23, 2026