Author: Qahwa World – Dubai. This article reviews ICE coffee inventories and coffee prices projections for 2026.
Executive Summary
- July arabica coffee gained 0.21%, while July robusta rose 2.24% to a seven-week high
- ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,642 lots
- ICE arabica stocks dropped to a 2.5-month low of 471,831 bags
- Brazil April green coffee exports declined 1.3% year-over-year to 2.76 million bags
- Vietnam January-April coffee exports surged 15.8% to 810,000 metric tons
- Global coffee surplus projected to reach 10 million bags in 2026, largest in six years
Coffee futures settled higher in Wednesday trading as shrinking exchange inventories continued to provide market support, with robusta prices climbing to their highest level in nearly two months.
July arabica coffee on the New York exchange rose 0.60 points, or 0.21 percent, while July robusta coffee on the London exchange advanced 78 points, or 2.24 percent, reaching a seven-week peak.
Tightening stocks on the Intercontinental Exchange remained the primary bullish factor for the market. Robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,642 lots on Wednesday, while arabica stocks dropped to a two-and-a-half-month low of 471,831 bags earlier in the week.
Reduced shipments from Brazil also provided price support. The country’s April green coffee exports declined 1.3 percent compared to the same period last year, totaling 2.76 million bags, according to industry data.
Disruptions in key shipping routes have raised concerns over global coffee supply chains, contributing to higher costs for freight, insurance, fertilizers, and fuel for importers and roasters.
On the bearish side, rising shipments from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continued to weigh on the market. Vietnamese coffee exports during the first four months of 2026 increased 15.8 percent year-over-year to 810,000 metric tons. The country’s total coffee exports for 2025 also rose 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons.
Expectations of a larger Brazilian harvest are also placing downward pressure on prices. Recent projections indicate Brazil 2026/2027 coffee harvest could rise 12 percent year-over-year to 71.4 million bags.
Several trading firms have issued forecasts pointing to record production levels. A major commodities brokerage projected Brazil 2026/2027 crop at 75.9 million bags, while another trading firm raised its estimate to a record 75.3 million bags.
The global coffee surplus in 2026 could expand to 10 million bags, compared with 1.8 million bags in 2025, which would represent the largest surplus in six years, according to industry analysts.
Global coffee exports for the current October-September marketing year slipped 0.3 percent year-over-year to 138.66 million bags, based on data from the International Coffee Organization.
Looking further ahead, the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service projects that global coffee production in 2025/2026 will rise 2 percent year-over-year to a record 178.85 million bags. The agency forecasts arabica production to decline 4.7 percent to 95.52 million bags, while robusta production is expected to increase 10.9 percent to 83.33 million bags.
Brazil production for 2025/2026 is forecast to fall 3.1 percent to 63 million bags, while Vietnam output is projected to rise 6.2 percent to a four-year high of 30.8 million bags.
The USDA also expects ending stocks for the 2025/2026 season to decline 5.4 percent to 20.15 million bags, down from 21.31 million bags in the previous season.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did coffee prices rise recently?
Coffee prices moved higher primarily due to shrinking ICE inventories. Arabica stocks fell to a 2.5-month low, while robusta inventories dropped to a two-year low, tightening available supply.
How did Brazil coffee exports perform in April?
Brazil April green coffee exports declined 1.3 percent year-over-year to 2.76 million bags, providing some support to coffee prices.
What is happening with Vietnam coffee exports?
Vietnam coffee exports surged 15.8 percent in the first four months of 2026 to 810,000 metric tons, which has weighed on prices due to increased supply from the world largest robusta producer.
What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?
The global coffee surplus in 2026 could expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025, marking the largest surplus in six years.
What does the USDA forecast for global coffee production?
The USDA projects global coffee production will reach a record 178.85 million bags in 2025/2026, a 2 percent increase year-over-year, with robusta driving the growth.
How are Strait of Hormuz disruptions affecting coffee prices?
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns over global coffee supply chains, increasing shipping, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs for importers and roasters, which supports higher coffee prices.
