Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, July 2026
Date: August 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report July 2026: Prices Surge 15.4% on Supply Fears

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.26 US cents per pound in July 2026. This was a 15.4% increase from June 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta prices. The Colombian Milds increased 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb. The Other Milds increased 16.5% to 358.65 US cents/lb. Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.

The widening price gap was reflected in higher differentials. The arbitrage between New York and London futures markets expanded by 36.4% to 137.61 US cents/lb.

Volatility also rose sharply. On July 6, the I-CIP rose 8.2% in a single day. On July 9, it rose another 9.3%. Together, these were the largest daily increases observed in 21 years.

Several factors contributed to the price surge. Weather-related concerns in Brazil, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tightening Arabica supplies all played a role. US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest level since January 2024.

ICE Margin Requirements and Market Liquidity

In response to heightened market risk, ICE Futures U.S. increased margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures multiple times in early July. The margin rate for the September 2026 contract rose from $5,685 before July to $14,715 on July 6, and then to $21,116 on July 9.

It was subsequently reduced to $14,606 on July 24. However, it remained well above its pre-July level. These adjustments affected financing requirements, market participation, and liquidity.

Higher margins require participants to provide more collateral. This reduces leverage and may discourage highly leveraged positions. It also strengthens protection against losses if a participant defaults.

However, it may also force positions to be closed. This reduces liquidity and can temporarily amplify price movements. The sharp price increases on July 6 and 9 may have been amplified by these liquidity effects.

Systematic and momentum-driven buying also played a role. Short covering, fueled by concerns over declining ICE-certified stocks, reinforced the upward price pressure. Thin liquidity made the market more susceptible to sharp movements.

Weather and El Niño Concerns

Weather factors were a key driver of July’s price movements. Unusually wet conditions in parts of Brazil disrupted harvesting and drying operations. This raised concerns about coffee quality.

On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was only 64% complete as of July 15. This compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%.

Wet conditions also caused uneven maturation. Multiple flowering cycles led to cherries at different stages of ripeness. This required more selective picking and sorting, making harvesting slower and more costly.

Meanwhile, the El Niño outlook strengthened significantly. On July 9, the US Climate Prediction Center reported a 97% probability that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027.

There was also an 81% probability of a very strong event during October-December 2026. This could rank among the most intense El Niño events recorded since 1950.

This outlook pointed to increased risks of regional rainfall and temperature anomalies. These could affect coffee production in Asia and South America in late 2026 and 2027.

Certified Stocks and Supply Tightness

London certified Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags in July. In contrast, US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags. This was their lowest level since January 2024.

This divergence indicated significantly tighter immediately deliverable supplies of Arabica. This supported higher Arabica prices relative to Robusta. It also contributed to the widening differentials between the two markets.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 0.98 million bags on July 31. This decline signaled limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions. It amplified the market’s response to weather and El Niño concerns.

Table 1: ICO Indicator Prices and Futures (US cents/lb)

Indicator	June 2026	July 2026	Change
ICO Composite	248.90	287.26	+15.4%
Colombian Milds	324.60	383.39	+18.1%
Other Milds	307.83	358.65	+16.5%
Brazilian Naturals	272.01	320.69	+17.9%
Robustas	169.39	184.78	+9.1%
New York ICE (Arabica)	256.75	310.34	+20.9%
London ICE (Robusta)	155.90	172.73	+10.8%

Green Bean Exports: Mixed Performance by Group

Global green bean exports totaled 10.48 million bags in June 2026. This was a 0.8% increase compared to 10.4 million bags in June 2025.

Brazilian Naturals exports rose 7.1% to 2.76 million bags. This was the first month of positive growth after 15 consecutive months of decline. The increase was driven by Brazil, where exports rose from 1.82 million to 2.01 million bags.

Colombian Milds exports increased 1.2% to 1.09 million bags. This was the group’s first positive growth in the current coffee year. Kenya was the main driver, with exports rising 39.2% to 0.11 million bags.

Other Milds exports fell 1.3% to 2.66 million bags. Nicaragua and Mexico were the main drivers of the decline, with combined exports falling 42.9% to 0.34 million bags.

Robusta exports fell 2.1% to 3.97 million bags. This was only the second instance of negative growth in the first nine months of the coffee year. Indonesia and Uganda drove the decline, with combined exports falling 36.1% to 0.98 million bags.

Total Arabica exports rose 2.5% to 6.51 million bags. However, the Arabicas’ share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 60.4% from 63.7% a year earlier.

Table 2: Green Bean Exports by Group (million 60‑kg bags)

Coffee Group	June 2025	June 2026	Change
Robustas	4.05	3.97	-2.1%
Colombian Milds	1.08	1.09	+1.2%
Other Milds	2.70	2.66	-1.3%
Brazilian Naturals	2.57	2.76	+7.1%

Exports by Region: South America Leads

Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 0.3% to 11.88 million bags in June 2026. Exports declined in three of the four regions. South America recorded the only increase.

South America’s exports rose 17.3% to 4.8 million bags. Brazil led the increase, with exports up 17.4% to 3.09 million bags. Peru also contributed, with exports rising 50% to 0.49 million bags.

Asia & Oceania exports fell 2.4% to 3.63 million bags. Indonesia led the decline, with exports falling 33.3% to 0.58 million bags. However, India and Vietnam partly offset this with increases of 14.6% and 6.1% respectively.

Africa’s exports fell 13.5% to 1.79 million bags. Uganda was the main driver, with exports falling 30.6% to an estimated 0.7 million bags.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America fell 15.3% to 1.66 million bags. Mexico and Nicaragua drove the decline, with combined exports falling 44% to 0.41 million bags.

Soluble coffee exports fell 1.3% to 1.35 million bags. Roasted bean exports fell 32.3% to 0.05 million bags.

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Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, July 2026 | Date: August 2026