Dubai – Qahwa World
The ongoing war involving Iran is increasing production costs in the global coffee sector, mainly due to rising fertilizer prices. These higher costs are raising concern among producers, analysts, and financial institutions about future supply and added pressure on smallholder farmers.
Recent industry assessments indicate that the current harvest cycle is mostly secure because key inputs have already been applied. However, the bigger risk is for the 2026/27 season if disruptions continue.
The situation is closely linked to instability in energy and fertilizer markets. The conflict has disrupted trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, an important passage for oil, gas, and agricultural inputs. This has contributed to higher global prices for fuel and fertilizers, both essential for coffee farming.
Fertilizer markets are under strain. Prices for key inputs like urea have increased significantly since the conflict began. Because fertilizer production depends heavily on natural gas, rising energy costs are making the situation worse.
For coffee farmers, especially smallholders, these increases are serious. Fertilizer represents a large part of production costs, and many farmers do not have strong financial protection against price swings. This directly affects their profitability.
In major coffee-producing countries, many growers rely on imported inputs, which makes them vulnerable to global supply shocks. At the same time, they are also dealing with currency changes, climate pressures, and labor shortages.
If the conflict continues to disrupt supply chains and energy markets, coffee production costs may keep rising, which could affect future harvest levels and global coffee supply.
