Dubai – Qahwa World
Coffee futures closed lower on Tuesday as a stronger U.S. dollar pressured commodity markets. This is a clear example of how a Strong Dollar Weighs on Coffee Prices. July arabica coffee contracts (KCN26) fell 0.76%, while July robusta futures (RMN26) declined 0.63%.
Losses were limited by tightening certified coffee inventories. ICE arabica stocks dropped to a 2.5-month low of 471,831 bags, while robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,664 lots.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to disrupt global coffee trade flows, increasing shipping, insurance, fuel, and fertilizer costs for importers and roasters.
Brazil’s weaker export performance also supported prices. Cecafe reported that Brazil’s March green coffee exports declined 10% year-on-year to 2.65 million bags, while the country’s Trade Ministry said total March coffee exports fell 31% to 151,000 metric tons.
Meanwhile, rising supplies from Vietnam weighed on robusta prices. Vietnam’s coffee exports during January–April 2026 increased 15.8% year-on-year to 810,000 metric tons, according to the National Statistics Office. The country’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to rise 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.
Expectations of a larger Brazilian crop also added bearish pressure. Recent forecasts from the Coffee Trading Academy, Marex Group, Sucafina, and StoneX all point to strong production in Brazil’s 2026/27 season, with estimates ranging from 71.4 million to 75.9 million bags.
StoneX also expects the global coffee surplus to expand to 10 million bags in 2026, compared with 1.8 million bags in 2025.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts global coffee production in 2025/26 will reach a record 178.848 million bags, driven by stronger robusta output, while global ending stocks are projected to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags.
