WASHINGTON – Coffee World
The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. coffee lovers, who hoped President Donald Trump’s recent tariff rollbacks would lower the cost of their daily cup, may need to temper those expectations.
According to the report, the broad import tariffs imposed last summer—which targeted major producers like Brazil—pushed raw coffee prices higher. However, these costs are still filtering through supply chains and have not yet been fully passed on to consumers, industry experts and traders say.
The current spike in U.S. retail coffee prices is largely driven by last year’s global supply shortage, which caused raw coffee bean prices to double in the 12 months leading up to March.
“Most of the retail price increases we’ve seen so far are not tied to tariffs,” said independent coffee analyst Christopher Feran. “They are a result of the record-breaking rally in the raw coffee market that began last year.”
Feran and other industry experts estimate it takes at least nine months for raw coffee price changes to reach consumers due to roasting timelines and pricing negotiations. Consequently, price relief may not appear until well into next year.
American consumers—in the world’s largest coffee market—will likely face elevated prices for longer. This presents a challenge for the White House as it attempts to curb food inflation ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections.
Following political pressure and shifting voter sentiment regarding food costs, Trump recently reversed reciprocal tariffs (ranging from 10% to 41%) on over 200 food items that cannot be easily produced in the U.S., including coffee. This included exempting Brazilian coffee from an additional 40% levy. Brazil currently provides approximately one-third of U.S. coffee needs.
Raw coffee beans account for at least 40% of the cost of producing a bag of roasted and ground coffee. These prices surged last year following three consecutive seasons of production deficits caused by adverse weather.
While experts predict a production surplus for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons, analysts warn that the cooling effect will be slow. U.S. roasters typically maintain 2-3 months of inventory and require several more months for processing and retail negotiations, which usually occur quarterly.
Industry data shows that only a small portion of the 18.8% year-over-year increase in retail prices is directly attributable to tariffs. In contrast, the 35% jump in raw coffee prices seen between August and November has yet to hit store shelves.
Nonetheless, the tariff rollback has slowed the pace of future increases. In late November, J.M. Smucker announced it would skip planned winter price hikes to cover tariff costs, despite a projected $0.50 per share impact on earnings.
“We are glad the tariffs are gone, but that alone won’t lower the market,” said an executive at a mid-sized U.S. roasting firm. He noted that while his company has finished raising prices, larger roasters may still implement hikes next year. “Raw coffee prices remain high, but the consumer often attributes everything to tariffs alone.”
