USDA Report: Record World Coffee Production in 2026/27
- World coffee production forecast at a record 189.7 million bags in 2026/27, up 10.8 million from the previous year.
- Brazil leads the surge with a record 71.9 million bags, driven by a 9.5 million bag Arabica rebound.
- Global consumption rises to a record 179.7 million bags, with the European Union and United States leading gains.
- World bean exports forecast at a record 131.4 million bags, up 11.9 million from 2025/26.
- Ending stocks rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags.
- Coffee prices have fallen 25% over the last seven months as additional supplies become available.
- Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Uganda all post production increases, while Indonesia declines.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service released its latest Coffee: World Markets and Trade report. Global coffee production for 2026/27 is forecast at a record 189.7 million bags. This represents an increase of 10.8 million bags from the previous year.
Record output in Brazil, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Vietnam drives this growth. These gains more than compensate for losses in India and Indonesia. World coffee bean exports are expected to reach a record 131.4 million bags. Global consumption is forecast to rise to a record 179.7 million bags.
World Production at Record High
World coffee production for 2026/27 is forecast 10.8 million bags higher than the previous year. Production is expected to reach a record 189.7 million bags. Brazil accounts for the largest share with a record 71.9 million bags. The rebound in Arabica production is particularly notable after five years of underperformance.
| Category | 2025/26 | 2026/27 Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Production | 178.8 | 189.7 | +10.8 |
| Arabica Production | 94.4 | 105.9 | +11.4 |
| Robusta Production | 84.4 | 83.8 | -0.6 |
Brazil: Record Production and Arabica Rebound
Brazil’s combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast at a record 71.9 million bags in 2026/27. This represents an increase of 8.9 million bags from the previous year. Arabica output is expected to rebound 9.5 million bags to 47.5 million, ending a five-year period of underperformance due to adverse weather conditions.
Timely rainfall during flowering in September and October ensured favorable fruit development. Near-record yields were achieved in Minas Gerais, where over 70% of Arabica coffee is grown. Robusta production is forecast to retreat 600,000 bags to 24.4 million following last year’s record harvest. Cooler temperatures combined with elevated rainfall lowered yields in Espirito Santo, where approximately 70% of Robusta is grown.
Brazil accounts for nearly 40% of world production and exerts significant influence on global supplies and prices. Brazil’s role in Arabica markets is even more pronounced, typically supplying between 40% and 50% depending on the biennial crop production cycle.
| Category | 2025/26 | 2026/27 Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arabica Production | 38.0 million bags | 47.5 million bags | +9.5 million |
| Robusta Production | 25.0 million bags | 24.4 million bags | -0.6 million |
| Total Production | 63.0 million bags | 71.9 million bags | +8.9 million |
| Bean Exports | 34.0 million bags | 45.0 million bags | +11.0 million |
| Ending Stocks | 3.9 million bags | 4.4 million bags | +0.5 million |
Global Consumption and Trade
World coffee bean exports are forecast 11.9 million bags higher to a record 131.4 million bags. This is driven by higher output in major producing countries. Global consumption is expected to rise to a record 179.7 million bags. The largest gains are occurring in the European Union and the United States.
Ending stocks are expected to rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags. This follows a significant drawdown between 2020/21 and 2024/25, when global ending stocks fell 15.5 million bags. While stocks are recovering, they remain below the long-term average.
| Category | 2025/26 | 2026/27 Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| World Production | 178.8 | 189.7 | +10.8 |
| World Bean Exports | 119.5 | 131.4 | +11.9 |
| World Consumption | 173.5 | 179.7 | +6.3 |
| Ending Stocks | 24.4 | 26.3 | +1.9 |
Country-by-Country Production Highlights
Vietnam production is forecast to increase 800,000 bags to a record 32.5 million. Expanding area and higher yields drive this growth. Recent high prices allowed growers to increase expenditures on fertilizers. Bean exports are forecast up 300,000 bags to 25.4 million. Domestic consumption is expected to reach a record 5.0 million bags.
Colombia output is expected to rise 900,000 bags to 13.4 million. Adequate soil moisture from last year’s excessive rains supports this growth. Increased utilization of fertilizers and pesticides also contributes. Bean exports, mostly to the United States and European Union, are forecast up 500,000 bags to 12.2 million.
Ethiopia is forecast to increase output by more than 500,000 bags to a record 12.1 million. Higher area and yield drive this growth. Over the last four years, growth has been driven by replacement of over half of the cultivated area with higher-yielding varieties. Bean exports are forecast up nearly 200,000 bags to 7.1 million.
Central America and Mexico production is forecast to rise nearly 600,000 bags to 17.7 million. Rebounding output in Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Panama contribute to this growth. Honduras is expected to account for nearly all the region’s growth, rebounding 500,000 bags to 6.0 million.
Indonesia production is forecast to drop 1.0 million bags to 11.4 million. Robusta output is expected to decrease 1.0 million bags to 10.0 million due to lower yields. Excessive rainfall disrupted flowering and cherry formation in Southern Sumatra and Java. Reduced output is expected to cut bean exports by over 800,000 bags to 7.0 million.
| Country | 2025/26 | 2026/27 Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 63.0 | 71.9 | +8.9 |
| Vietnam | 31.7 | 32.5 | +0.8 |
| Colombia | 12.5 | 13.4 | +0.9 |
| Ethiopia | 11.6 | 12.1 | +0.5 |
| Indonesia | 12.4 | 11.4 | -1.0 |
| Honduras | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 |
| Uganda | 7.1 | 7.2 | +0.1 |
Price Impact of Rising Supplies
Coffee prices have dropped 25% over the last seven months as additional supplies became available. This is measured by the International Coffee Organization monthly composite price index. The improving supply situation reflects record production and rising ending stocks.
However, ending stocks remain below the long-term average. Weather developments in key producing regions, particularly Minas Gerais in Brazil, remain the primary indicator for world market conditions. The biennial production cycle in Brazil continues to shape global supply and price expectations.
Revisions to 2025/26 Estimates
World production is unchanged from the December 2025 estimate of 178.8 million bags. Vietnam is raised 900,000 bags to 31.7 million on higher yields. Peru is up nearly 600,000 bags to 4.8 million. Colombia is lowered 1.3 million bags to 12.5 million due to excessive rain and cloud cover. Guatemala is reduced nearly 400,000 bags to 3.2 million due to coffee cherry borer and coffee rust.
World bean exports are revised down 4.3 million bags to 119.5 million. Brazil is lowered 3.0 million bags to 34.0 million due to lower shipments to the EU and United States. Ethiopia is reduced over 800,000 bags to 6.9 million on higher-than-anticipated domestic consumption. Vietnam is up 500,000 bags to 25.1 million on higher output.
Key Takeaways for the Coffee Industry
Record global production is expected to boost supplies significantly. Brazil’s Arabica rebound after five years of underperformance is particularly notable. This could help replenish global inventories that were drawn down in previous years.
Ending stocks are forecast to rise for a second consecutive year. However, they remain below the long-term average. Weather developments in Minas Gerais remain the primary indicator for world market conditions. Coffee prices have fallen 25% in seven months, reflecting improved supply. Producers and traders should monitor Brazil’s production cycle closely, as it heavily influences global market conditions.
