Tradition Anchors Growth as Pods, Specialty and RTD Gain Ground

DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

Italy’s coffee sector is projected to expand steadily through 2031, supported by strong domestic consumption, product innovation and premiumisation trends, even as competition from alternative beverages intensifies.

According to a recent industry analysis published by Research and Markets, the Italian coffee market is estimated at USD 5.92 billion in 2026, up from USD 5.61 billion in 2025. The market is forecast to reach USD 7.71 billion by 2031, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.44% between 2026 and 2031.

A Market Rooted in Culture

Coffee consumption remains deeply embedded in Italy’s daily life and social fabric. Espresso culture, regional roasting traditions and the central role of cafés continue to sustain stable demand across retail and foodservice channels.

Data from the European Coffee Federation shows European coffee sales rising from EUR 2.45 billion in 2022 to EUR 2.57 billion in 2023, reflecting consistent consumption patterns in mature markets such as Italy. The country continues to shape broader European coffee dynamics through its heritage brands and café culture.

Ground coffee remains the backbone of the market, reflecting traditional brewing habits in both households and professional settings.

Segment Performance: Leaders and Fastest Growers

Ground Coffee: Market Leader

Ground coffee accounted for 34.10% of market share in 2025, maintaining its leadership due to Italy’s strong preference for authentic espresso preparation. Its versatility across brewing methods and wide range of blends and roast profiles reinforce its dominance.

Pods and Capsules: Fastest Growth

Coffee pods and capsules represent the fastest-growing segment, with a projected CAGR of 6.31% through 2031. Growth is driven by convenience, single-serve machine adoption and demand for consistent quality in homes and offices. Innovation in cross-compatible systems and flavor diversification continues to support expansion.

Plain Coffee: Cultural Mainstay

Plain coffee holds a commanding 78.20% market share in 2025, underscoring consumer preference for traditional, unflavored coffee that highlights bean quality and roasting craftsmanship.

Flavored Coffee: Emerging Momentum

Flavored coffee is projected to grow at a 7.02% CAGR through 2031, reflecting changing tastes among younger consumers and urban markets seeking diversified flavor experiences.

Innovation and Premiumisation

Italian consumers remain loyal to tradition but increasingly embrace innovation that blends heritage with modern preferences. Product development is expanding into:

Specialty and single-origin offerings
Ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee
Sustainable and ethically sourced products
Smart brewing systems
E-commerce and digital sales channels

International brands are also adapting to the Italian market. In February 2023, Starbucks Corporation introduced its Oleato olive oil coffee range in Italy, combining espresso with olive oil in beverages designed to align with local culinary identity while offering a differentiated experience.

Sustainability and ethical sourcing are increasingly important purchase drivers, while climate volatility remains a structural risk factor affecting global green coffee supply.

Competitive Pressures from Alternative Beverages

The broader beverage landscape in Italy is evolving. Functional teas, energy drinks, matcha, kombucha and plant-based beverages are gaining visibility, particularly among younger consumers. Specialty tea shops and bubble tea outlets are expanding in major cities, competing with traditional coffee bars as social spaces.

In response, coffee companies are diversifying portfolios to include tea, functional drinks and wellness-oriented beverages, leveraging established distribution networks and brand recognition.

Corporate Spotlight: Illycaffè Expands U.S. Production

Premium Italian roaster Illycaffè plans to begin production in the United States in 2026 as part of its international growth strategy.

Chief Executive Officer Cristina Scocchia stated that between 15% and 20% of the company’s U.S. sales volume will be produced locally starting early next year. The move aims to improve supply chain flexibility and enhance proximity to consumers.

Illycaffè expects overall turnover to rise approximately 10% year-on-year to around €690 million, with reported growth of 11% in Italy and 19% in the United States at constant exchange rates. However, the company faces continued cost pressure from elevated green coffee prices, which rose significantly in 2025 due to weather-related supply disruptions and global market volatility.

Founded in 1933 in Trieste, Illycaffè operates in more than 140 countries and remains a key player in the premium espresso segment.

Market Structure and Key Players

The Italian coffee market is segmented by:

Product Type: Whole bean, ground coffee, instant coffee and others
Flavor: Plain and flavored
Category: Conventional and specialty
Bean Type: Arabica, Robusta and others
Distribution Channel: On-trade and off-trade

Major companies operating in the market include:

Luigi Lavazza S.p.A.
Nestlé S.A.
Kimbo S.p.A.
Starbucks Corporation
Gruppo Illy S.p.A.
Tchibo GmbH
JDE Peet’s N.V.
Segafredo Zanetti S.p.A.
Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group

Outlook

Italy’s coffee market remains mature but dynamic. Traditional espresso culture continues to anchor demand, while growth is increasingly concentrated in pods, capsules, specialty formats and ready-to-drink beverages.

As sustainability priorities, technological integration and premium positioning reshape the competitive landscape, Italy is expected to maintain its dual role as both a heritage-driven coffee market and a hub for innovation within Europe’s broader coffee industry.

coffee capsules

Italy Coffee Market Outlook 2026–2031