Fabricio Scocco: A New Way to Read the Coffee Market

Fabricio Scocco: A New Way to Read the Coffee Market

By any measure, the coffee market is drowning in information—and starving for clarity. Charts, headlines, rumors, and price screens move faster than the coffee itself. Fabricio Scocco is attempting something different.

He’s experimenting with a new format designed to cut through the noise: short, structured, and built for decision-making. The result is a three-page Coffee Trade Intelligence brief that focuses less on opinion and more on what actually matters to buyers, sellers, and origin stakeholders in real time.

This first release—focused on Nicaragua, with a 2–4 week time horizon—marks the launch of an ongoing Coffee Trade Intelligence series. Feedback from roasters, traders, importers, and producers is not only welcome, but encouraged.

Coffee Trade Intelligence | Nicaragua

Time Horizon: 2–4 Weeks

Market Snapshot

Early harvest conditions are defining the current landscape.

• Harvest arrivals are running 15–30% below peak levels

• Differential holdings sit 5–10% above seasonal norms

• Early volumes are largely pre-committed

• Quality dispersion is widening across producing regions

The message is clear: coffee is moving, but not freely—and not evenly.

What’s Driving Price and Risk

Supply Reality

Harvest still ramping up
Picking is underway, but export-ready volumes remain limited. Supply is improving gradually, not surging. For now, there is not enough physical coffee entering the system to materially ease availability.

Producer selling tied to cash flow
Sales decisions are being paced by working capital needs and production costs. This introduces irregularity into supply timing, rather than a steady flow into the market.

Demand Behavior

Specialty buyers absorbing early lots
High-quality early arrivals are being quickly taken up by specialty buyers. This demand is targeted, quality-driven, and relatively price-inelastic.

Bulk buyers still on the sidelines
For now, larger volume buyers are showing limited urgency, likely waiting for clearer signals on price and peak harvest availability.

Market Disconnect

Physical market trailing futures by 2–3 weeks
There is a noticeable lag between futures market expectations and on-the-ground physical conditions. Paper markets are moving faster than coffee.

Prices not yet reflecting peak arrival pressure
Despite expectations of heavier arrivals, prices have not adjusted accordingly—suggesting potential re-pricing once supply is confirmed.

Buying Positioning

Recommended Strategy

Approach

• Avoid bulk commitments at current levels

• Accumulate selectively, targeting 25–30% of total needs

• Scale purchases as mid-harvest volumes begin to flow

Timing Window

• Late January through February will be critical for observing supply acceleration and adjusting buying pace accordingly

Key Risks to Watch

• Weather during peak harvest, which could disrupt picking and logistics

• FX-driven producer selling, where currency movements could unlock—or restrict—short-term liquidity and supply

Bottom Line

Wait for supply confirmation. Pay for quality, not urgency.
Let verified arrivals guide buying decisions. The premium today should be for cup profile and consistency—not speed.

What to Watch Over the Next 2–4 Weeks

• Arrival acceleration into export channels

• Differential softening, signaling improved physical availability

• Producer selling pace, especially if FX movements shift incentives

Confidence Assessment

Overall Market Visibility: Medium

• Supply clarity depends on how quickly harvest volumes scale

• Specialty demand is firm, but bulk demand remains hesitant

• Futures are moving ahead of physical reality, increasing volatility risk

• Weather and FX remain persistent external variables

Final Take

Maintain a cautious but engaged posture. The coming weeks will be defined by how quickly supply materializes—and how producers choose to sell. Those signals will determine whether today’s market tightness holds, or finally begins to loosen.