Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, June 2026
Date: July 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report June 2026: Prices Rebound on El Niño Fears

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 248.90 US cents per pound in June 2026. This was a 2.8% decrease from May 2026.

Prices continued their downward trend in early June. They fell to 231.96 US cents/lb on June 9, the lowest level in nearly two years. However, prices then rebounded sharply by 17.4%.

They reached a two-month high of 272.39 US cents/lb at the end of the month. Weather emerged as the principal driver of coffee price dynamics in June.

The Colombian Milds and Robustas recorded modest gains. The Colombian Milds rose 0.4% to 324.60 US cents/lb. Robustas increased 1.7% to 169.39 US cents/lb.

In contrast, the Other Milds declined 2.4% to 307.83 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals fell 7.4% to 272.01 US cents/lb. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags.

US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags. This was the lowest level since February 2024. The market became increasingly nervous as inventories tightened.

Super El Niño Fears Drive Rebound

Market sentiment shifted abruptly in June. Growing confidence that El Niño would develop into a Super El Niño halted the downward price movement on June 9.

The Japan Meteorological Agency and NOAA released reports on June 10 and 11. They indicated 67% confidence in a Super El Niño event, the highest confidence level on record.

These forecasts raised concerns about the potential impact on the 2026/27 coffee harvest. The effects vary across regions and seasons.

Reduced rainfall is expected in the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico. Raised temperatures and reduced rainfall are forecast for northern Brazil and parts of South America.

Increased rainfall is expected in southern Brazil and Bolivia. More erratic rainfall and flooding are forecast for East Africa. Drought conditions are expected in Southeast Asia.

On June 17 and 24, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was progressing slowly. The harvest reached 39% and 44% completion, respectively.

The delay was concentrated in Arabica areas. Excess rainfall disrupted harvesting and drying operations, particularly in Minas Gerais. The 44% completion figure on June 24 was below the 51% recorded a year earlier and the five-year average of 47%.

On June 29, Somar Meteorologia measured 31.3 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais. This was equivalent to 1,956% of the historical average for the period. The unusually high precipitation occurred during the normally dry season. It delayed harvesting and drying operations and raised concerns over bean quality.

Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Add Supply Pressure

The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed from February 28. This forced Asia-Europe shipping routes to divert via the Cape of Good Hope. Transit times increased by 10 to 14 days.

Bunker fuel prices were up 68% from mid-to-late February. Container spot rates roughly doubled. Fertilizer prices increased 25%.

A gradual reopening occurred on June 22-23 following the U.S.-Iran agreement on June 17. This pushed Robusta prices to a one-week low. However, attacks on the Ever Lovely on June 25 and the Kiku on June 27 renewed geopolitical tensions within days. The associated premiums returned quickly.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 1.09 million bags on June 30. This was the lowest level since February 2024. The decline signaled tighter availability of deliverable stocks. The market was left with limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions.

Supply Fundamentals and Bearish Factors

On June 1, the USDA forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at a record level. The forecast was 14% above the previous season. Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global Arabica surplus estimate by 35.7%.

These forecasts reinforced previous positive reports. CONAB’s official second survey projected Brazil’s total crop at 66.7 million bags. Safras & Mercado projected a total crop increase of 13.4%.

In late May, the USDA revised its estimate of Vietnam’s 2025/26 output upwards to 31.7 million bags. It forecast production at 32.5 million bags for 2026/27. The dollar index stood at 101.6 during the week of June 22. This was close to a 15-month high, creating a headwind for coffee prices.

The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets contracted by 13.3% to 100.86 US cents/lb in June 2026. Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.6%.

Exports: Arabica Declines, Robusta Gains

Global green bean exports totalled 10.8 million bags in May 2026. This was a 4.1% decline compared to 11.26 million bags in May 2025. All coffee groups recorded declines except Robustas.

Robusta exports were up 4.8% to 4.34 million bags. This was driven mainly by Brazil, where exports surged by 195.6% to 0.61 million bags. The sharp rise reflects differences in harvest timing between the current and previous Robusta harvests.

Colombian Milds exports fell by 1.7% to 0.98 million bags. This marked the seventh consecutive month of negative growth. Other Milds shipments fell by 2.8% to 2.75 million bags. This was the first negative growth observed in coffee year 2025/26.

Brazilian Naturals exports fell by 17.2% to 2.73 million bags. This marked the 15th consecutive month of negative growth. The declines were primarily driven by Brazil and Ethiopia.

Total Arabica exports decreased to 6.46 million bags in May 2026. This was a 9.3% drop from 7.12 million bags in May 2025. As a result, Arabica’s share of total green bean exports fell to 60.2% from 64.0% a year earlier.

Table 1: Green Bean Exports by Coffee Group (million 60‑kg bags)

Coffee Group	May 2025	May 2026	Change
Robustas	4.14	4.34	+4.8%
Colombian Milds	0.99	0.98	-1.7%
Other Milds	2.82	2.75	-2.8%
Brazilian Naturals	3.30	2.73	-17.2%

Exports by Region: Mixed Performance

Global exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 3.2% to 12.38 million bags in May 2026. The dynamics across the four regions were mixed.

Exports from Asia & Oceania were up 0.4% to 4.32 million bags. India led the growth with exports increasing 33.7% to 0.74 million bags. However, this was largely offset by decreases in Indonesia and Vietnam.

Africa’s exports decreased by 24.1% to 1.63 million bags. The contraction was driven largely by Ethiopia and Uganda. Their combined exports fell to an estimated 1.31 million bags from 1.77 million bags in May 2025.

South America’s exports increased by 4.3% to 4.29 million bags. This was the first monthly increase in 18 months. The upturn was driven mainly by Brazil, whose exports were up 4.3%.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America decreased by 3.8% to 2.14 million bags. This was the first negative growth in coffee year 2025/26, driven mainly by Nicaragua.

Soluble coffee exports increased by 3.6% to 1.51 million bags. Vietnam, Brazil, and India were the largest exporters. Roasted bean exports were up 10.8% to 0.07 million bags.

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Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, June 2026 | Date: July 2026