Dubai – Qahwa World
Coffee prices moved higher midweek, with both arabica and robusta futures posting gains. Robusta led the advance, reaching its strongest level in roughly one and a half weeks, supported by tightening near-term supplies.
A key factor behind the upward movement is reduced export activity from Brazil. Recent figures indicate that shipments of green coffee declined in March compared to the same month last year. Broader trade data also shows a sharp drop in overall coffee exports, reinforcing concerns about limited supply from the world’s leading producer.
In the robusta segment, falling inventories have added to the bullish sentiment. Exchange-monitored stockpiles have dropped to their lowest levels in more than a year, highlighting ongoing supply tightness in the physical market.
Weather conditions are also contributing to price support. Brazil’s main arabica-growing region, Minas Gerais, has received significantly less rainfall than usual in recent weeks. Reduced precipitation during key crop development stages may affect yields, adding uncertainty to future supply.
However, the broader outlook remains complex. Earlier projections of a large upcoming Brazilian crop continue to weigh on market sentiment. Several forecasts point to record production in the 2026/27 season, with global supply potentially expanding into a sizeable surplus.
At the same time, rising certified inventories for arabica have recently pressured prices, reflecting improved availability in some segments of the market.
Global logistics challenges are adding another layer of influence. Disruptions to major shipping routes have increased freight, insurance, and fuel costs, raising expenses for importers and roasters and contributing to overall market volatility.
Meanwhile, Vietnam continues to strengthen its position in the robusta sector. Strong export performance and expectations of increased production could help offset supply constraints from Brazil.
Earlier in the year, coffee prices declined sharply amid expectations of abundant global output. Forecasts suggest that worldwide production could reach record levels in the coming seasons, driven largely by Brazil and Vietnam.
Even so, global stock levels are expected to edge lower, with ending inventories projected to decline compared to the previous season. This balance between strong production and tightening stocks underscores the mixed and evolving outlook for the global coffee market.
