Dubai – Qahwa World
Coffee futures ended mixed on Monday, January 5, with arabica prices settling higher while robusta declined to a one-week low. March arabica coffee rose about 0.6%, supported by below-normal rainfall in Brazil and a stronger Brazilian real, while March robusta fell between 1% and 2.5% under pressure from rising Vietnamese supplies.
Arabica prices drew support after Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais—Brazil’s largest arabica-growing region—received just 47.9 millimeters of rain in the week ending January 2, only 67% of the historical average. Weather concerns remain important for Brazil, the world’s largest arabica producer. Additional support came from the Brazilian real strengthening to a three-week high against the U.S. dollar, which discourages Brazilian growers from selling coffee into export markets.
In contrast, robusta prices weakened as supply concerns eased. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that 2025 coffee exports surged 17.5% year over year to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam is the world’s largest robusta producer, and expectations for higher output continue to weigh on prices. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to rise about 6%, with industry groups suggesting output could climb as much as 10% if weather remains favorable.
Inventory trends remain mixed but generally supportive. ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low in November before rebounding modestly in late December, while robusta inventories also recovered slightly after hitting a one-year low earlier in the month. Meanwhile, U.S. coffee stocks remain tight after American buyers sharply reduced Brazilian purchases last fall due to temporary import tariffs, which caused U.S. imports from Brazil to drop more than 50% year over year during that period.
Longer-term supply expectations continue to pressure the market. Brazil’s crop agency Conab recently raised its 2025 production estimate to 56.54 million bags. Globally, the USDA projects world coffee production in 2025/26 will rise 2% to a record level, driven by strong growth in robusta output despite a projected decline in arabica production. Ending stocks are expected to fall modestly, offering some offsetting support.
Overall, the coffee market remains caught between near-term weather and currency support for arabica and ample robusta supplies led by Vietnam, keeping prices volatile and direction mixed.
