Dubai – Qahwa World
Global coffee prices moved higher on Thursday as renewed concerns about supply disruptions supported the market. Arabica futures climbed to their highest level in about two weeks, while robusta contracts also posted modest gains.
Market sentiment was influenced by fresh export data from Brazil. The country’s Ministry of Trade reported that Brazilian coffee exports in February declined by 17.4 percent compared with the same month a year earlier, totaling about 142,000 metric tons. The drop raised questions about near-term supply availability from the world’s largest coffee producer.
Shipping conditions in global trade routes also contributed to the cautious mood in the market. Disruptions affecting shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz have increased transportation costs, including higher freight rates, insurance premiums and fuel expenses. These factors are expected to add pressure to import costs for coffee traders and roasters.
Despite the upward move in prices, a stronger U.S. dollar limited the extent of the gains. A firmer dollar generally makes dollar-denominated commodities such as coffee more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Weather developments in Brazil continue to play an important role in shaping market expectations. Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture conditions in Minas Gerais, the country’s main arabica-producing region. According to meteorological data, the area received significantly above-average precipitation during the week ending February 20, helping improve crop prospects.
Coffee prices have experienced notable volatility in recent weeks. Earlier in the month, both arabica and robusta futures fell sharply amid expectations of a large Brazilian harvest. Brazil’s national crop supply agency projected that the country’s coffee output in 2026 could reach a record 66.2 million bags, driven by stronger arabica production and a moderate increase in robusta volumes.
Global supply forecasts have also pointed to expanding production. Banking sector estimates suggest worldwide coffee output may reach around 180 million bags in the 2026/27 season, an increase of roughly eight million bags compared with the previous year.
Meanwhile, Vietnam continues to expand its presence in the robusta market. Official data show the country recorded strong export growth at the start of the year, with shipments rising sharply compared with the same period last year. Vietnam remains the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, and its production is expected to grow further in the current crop cycle.
Coffee inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange have also shown signs of recovery after reaching multi-month lows late last year. Higher stock levels can weigh on prices because they signal improved supply availability in the market.
At the same time, production trends in other origins remain mixed. Colombia, the world’s second-largest arabica producer, recently reported a significant decline in January coffee output compared with the previous year, a factor that provided some support to global prices.
Overall, the coffee market continues to balance opposing forces: concerns over logistics and regional production setbacks on one side, and expectations of larger global harvests on the other. Traders are closely watching weather conditions, export flows and shipping developments for further direction in the weeks ahead.
