Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, September 2026
Date: October 2026
Coffee Prices Fall 8.7% as Brazil’s Record Crop Arrives
Executive Summary
- The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 262.18 US cents/lb in September 2026, down 8.7% from August.
- All four ICO group indicators declined, with Brazilian Naturals falling the most at 9.9%.
- Brazil’s record crop reaching the market increased availability and weighed on prices.
- Low certified Arabica stocks and El Niño uncertainty provided some support but could not halt the decline.
- Global green bean exports rose 15.6% to 10.94 million bags in August, driven by Robustas and Brazilian Naturals.
- For the first time on record, the Arabica share of cumulative green bean exports fell below 60% for the first 11 months of a coffee year.
- The ICO launched a new Coffee Market Intelligence Platform (data.ico.org) to make market data more accessible.
The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 262.18 US cents per pound in September 2026. This was an 8.7% decrease from August 2026.
Prices ranged between 248.44 and 279.85 US cents/lb. The month opened at its high and closed at 261.60 US cents/lb on September 30, which was 7.0% below the August close of 281.15.
The decline was broad-based. Every ICO group indicator fell by between 7.3% and 9.9%. The largest fall was in Brazilian Naturals, the group most directly exposed to Brazil’s harvest.
Increased availability from Brazil’s record crop and expectations of ample supply weighed on prices. Low certified Arabica stocks and uncertainty surrounding El Niño provided some support. However, these factors were not enough to reverse the downward trend.
Price Movements Across Groups
Brazilian Naturals prices fell 9.9% to 290.19 US cents/lb. Colombian Milds declined 8.1% to 356.15 US cents/lb. Other Milds dropped 8.8% to 329.44 US cents/lb.
Robustas declined 7.3% to 167.49 US cents/lb. On the futures markets, London ICE Robusta prices fell 8.0% to 154.28 US cents/lb. New York ICE Arabica prices dropped 10.4% to 280.68 US cents/lb.
The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets narrowed 13.2% to 126.40 US cents/lb. Every Arabica-Robusta differential narrowed. This reflects the larger percentage declines in Arabica prices as Brazil’s much larger Arabica crop of 46.3 million bags reached the market.
Meanwhile, CONAB’s lower Robusta estimate and the early-month resilience of Robusta cushioned its prices. Brazil’s Robusta crop is estimated at a record 25.1 million bags, up 11.1%.
Volatility also declined. The I-CIP volatility was 10.0% in September, 3.7 percentage points below August’s 13.7%. New York and London futures volatility stood at 13.4% and 9.7% respectively.
Certified Stocks Rise Modestly
US certified Arabica stocks rose to 0.27 million bags at the end of September. This was up from 0.24 million bags at the end of August.
London certified Robusta stocks rose to a 10-month high of 0.87 million bags. This was up from 0.83 million bags at the end of August.
Despite these increases, Arabica stocks remain historically low. The modest recovery did not offset the broader bearish sentiment driven by Brazil’s record crop.
Exports: Strong August Growth
Global green bean exports totaled 10.94 million bags in August 2026. This was a 15.6% increase from 9.46 million bags in August 2025.
The August upturn was in sharp contrast to the usual seasonal decline between July and August. This helped explain the double-digit growth rate.
Robusta green bean exports increased 22.4% to 4.36 million bags. Brazilian Naturals rose 21.3% to 3.57 million bags. Other Milds increased 6.6% to 1.91 million bags.
Colombian Milds were the only group to record a decline. Exports fell 5.6% to 1.09 million bags. This marked the group’s 10th month of negative growth in the current coffee year.
Total Arabica exports increased to 6.58 million bags, up 11.6% from 5.89 million bags in August 2025. Despite this, the Arabica share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 59.6% from 63.5% a year earlier.
This marked the first time on record that the Arabica share fell below 60% for the volume shipped in the first 11 months of a coffee year.
Robusta’s share of world production is estimated to have risen to 43.1% of total output in 2025/26. This is up from an average of 41.7% in 2023/24 to 2024/25. This larger share and changing tastes among some coffee drinkers may help explain the shift in export composition.
Table 1: Green Bean Exports by Coffee Group (million 60 kg bags)
| Coffee Group | August 2025 | August 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robustas | 3.57 | 4.36 | +22.4% |
| Brazilian Naturals | 2.94 | 3.57 | +21.3% |
| Other Milds | 1.79 | 1.91 | +6.6% |
| Colombian Milds | 1.16 | 1.09 | -5.6% |
Exports by Region
Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 14.6% to 12.55 million bags in August 2026. This was up from 10.95 million bags in August 2025.
South America was the main driver of the August upturn. Exports rose 20.2% to 5.98 million bags. Brazil led with a 34.5% increase to 4.28 million bags. This was Brazil’s fifth consecutive month of positive growth.
Asia & Oceania exports rose 23.1% to 4.03 million bags. Vietnam led with a 48.0% increase to 2.24 million bags.
Africa’s exports fell 1.8% to 1.74 million bags. This marked the sixth consecutive month of negative growth. Uganda drove the decline with an 8.8% drop to an estimated 0.78 million bags.
The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America fell 14.3% to 0.79 million bags. This was the fourth consecutive month of negative growth, driven mainly by Nicaragua and Mexico.
Soluble coffee exports rose 8.1% to 1.56 million bags. Vietnam was the largest exporter with 0.43 million bags. Roasted bean exports were unchanged at 0.05 million bags.
New Market Intelligence Platform
In September, the ICO launched the Coffee Market Intelligence Platform at data.ico.org. It is a free-to-view interactive tool combining daily market indicators with data on monthly trade, annual production and consumption.
The platform’s basic dashboards are available free of charge to all users. They provide visibility of current-year prices and stock data, as well as aggregated trade and production statistics for the current and previous years.
ICO Members also have free access to historical data dating back to 1963. Commercial organizations requiring detailed historical data or bulk datasets can purchase an annual statistical subscription.
The platform was unveiled at a press conference in Geneva during the 142nd Session of the International Coffee Council. The launch came ahead of the first UN-recognized International Coffee Day on 1 October.
The aim is to make coffee market data more accessible. The platform will run in parallel to the existing ICO World Coffee Statistical Database for a few months before the latter is phased out.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did coffee prices fall in September 2026?
The ICO composite price fell 8.7% to 262.18 US cents/lb, down from 287.29 US cents/lb in August.
What caused the decline?
Increased availability from Brazil’s record crop and expectations of ample supply weighed on prices. Low certified Arabica stocks and El Niño uncertainty provided only limited support.
How did the different coffee groups perform?
All four groups declined. Brazilian Naturals fell 9.9%, Other Milds 8.8%, Colombian Milds 8.1%, and Robustas 7.3%.
What happened to the Arabica share of exports?
The Arabica share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 59.6% from 63.5%. This was the first time on record it fell below 60% for the first 11 months of a coffee year.
How did certified stocks change?
US certified Arabica stocks rose modestly to 0.27 million bags. London certified Robusta stocks rose to a 10-month high of 0.87 million bags.
What is the new ICO platform?
The Coffee Market Intelligence Platform (data.ico.org) is a free-to-view interactive tool combining daily market indicators with monthly trade, annual production and consumption data.
Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, September 2026 | Date: October 2026
