Dubai Qahwa World
As of April 2026, the global coffee market is undergoing a pivotal shift. Data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) and the USDA show that the 2025/26 coffee year (October 2025–September 2026) has delivered record global supply, easing the extreme price pressures seen in 2024 and early 2025. World production is forecast at 178.8 million 60-kg bags (up 2% or +3.5 million bags year-on-year), while consumption reaches a record 173.9 million bags (+1.3%). Ending stocks remain tight at approximately 20.1 million bags, marking the fifth consecutive decline. Nevertheless, improved supply has caused ICO Composite Indicator Prices to drop sharply in early 2026 (February average: 267.57 US cents/lb, -9.9% month-on-month).
This supply surplus is driven by strong recoveries in Vietnam and Indonesia, record Ethiopian output, and steady performance in Brazil, despite drought impacts on key Arabica regions. National updates, including Brazil’s Conab first survey in February 2026, indicate an even stronger 2026 harvest, which could push global supply higher for 2026/27.
Top 10 Coffee-Producing Countries (2025/26 Forecast)
Data primarily from USDA December 2025 report, cross-verified with national sources and market analyses. Figures are green coffee equivalents. Percentages approximate global share.
| Rank | Country | Production (M bags) | % Global | Main Variety | YoY Change | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 63.0 | ~35% | Arabica (60%), Robusta/Conilon (40%) | -2.0M (drought offset by Robusta gains) | Record Robusta; Arabica hit by weather |
| 2 | Vietnam | 30.8 | ~17% | Robusta (~95%) | Recovery (+ higher yields) | Fertilizer investment boosted output |
| 3 | Colombia | 13.8 | ~8% | Arabica (100%, washed) | -1.0M (excess rain/rust risk) | Disease-resistant varieties helped |
| 4 | Indonesia | ~12.5 | ~7% | Robusta (dominant) | +1.7M (Robusta) | Smallholder-dominated; favorable weather |
| 5 | Ethiopia | 11.6 | ~6.5% | Arabica (specialty) | Record (+0.5M) | New varieties and pruning |
| 6 | Uganda | ~6.9 | ~3.9% | Robusta | Steady growth | African Robusta leader |
| 7 | Honduras | ~5.5–6.0 | ~3% | Arabica | Part of Central America rebound | Strong regional contributor |
| 8 | India | ~5–6 | ~3% | Robusta (65%), Arabica (35%) | Stable | Specialty and organic focus |
| 9 | Peru | ~4.2–5 | ~2.5% | Arabica (specialty/organic) | Steady | Premium export growth |
| 10 | Mexico / Guatemala | ~3.8 each | ~2% each | Arabica | Modest | Central America/Mexico rebound |
Total top 5: ~131.7M bags (~74% of world production). Latin America dominates Arabica; Asia leads Robusta.
Country Profiles: Drivers, Challenges, and 2026 Outlook
Brazil – World Leader (~35% of Global Supply)
Brazil remains the top producer. The 2025/26 crop saw Arabica decline to ~38M bags due to drought and high temperatures in Minas Gerais and São Paulo. Robusta surged to a record ~25M bags in Espírito Santo and Bahia thanks to better rainfall. Exports are forecast at ~37M bags.
- Trends: Biennial cycle plus large-scale production with technology and irrigation. Funcafé funding supports the sector.
- Challenges: Climate volatility, water stress, and EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) compliance.
- 2026 Outlook: Conab’s February 2026 survey projects a record 66.2M bags (+17.1% YoY): Arabica +23.3% to 44.1M, Robusta +6.4% to 22.1M. This would surpass the 2020/21 record harvest.
Vietnam – Robusta Powerhouse
Nearly all output is Robusta, used in instant coffee and blends. Production rebounded due to favorable weather and higher input spending. Exports projected at 24.6M bags (+2.3M).
- Trends: Export-oriented, rapid post-1990s expansion.
- Challenges: Climate vulnerability in highlands; past dry spells.
- 2026 Outlook: Continued recovery expected; early 2026 data shows strong export growth.
Colombia – Premium Arabica Specialist
100% washed Arabica. 2025/26 saw a modest decline due to excessive rains and cloud cover affecting flowering and rust risk. Disease-resistant varieties, such as Castillo, mitigated losses. Exports ~11.5M bags.
- Trends: Focus on quality; yield improvements ongoing.
- Challenges: Weather cycles, labor costs, altitude sensitivity.
- 2026 Outlook: Rebound likely under normal conditions; key supplier to specialty markets.
Indonesia – Diverse Robusta and Specialty
Robusta dominates Sumatra and Java; small Arabica areas in the north. Production rose due to favorable weather and labor availability. Smallholder plots average 1 ha. Exports: green coffee +1.7M to 7.8M bags.
- Trends: Stable land area (~1.2M ha), significant soluble coffee exports.
- Challenges: Minimal fertilizer use, climate extremes.
- 2026 Outlook: Stable supply to EU, US, and emerging markets expected.
Ethiopia – Africa’s Specialty Arabica Leader
Record 11.6M bags driven by adoption of higher-yielding varieties and pruning. Exports ~7.8M bags.
- Trends: Natural and semi-washed processing; heirloom varieties remain globally sought.
- Challenges: Smallholder fragmentation, highland climate variability, infrastructure limits.
- 2026 Outlook: Growth likely if variety upgrades continue; specialty segment driver.
Emerging/Other Notable Producers
Uganda, Honduras, India, Peru, Mexico, and Guatemala produce the remaining ~25%. They are critical for Robusta (Uganda) and specialty/organic Arabica (Peru, India, Honduras). Central America/Mexico region rebounded +1.1M bags. India emphasizes premium niches (Monsoon Malabar, organic). All face smallholder and climate challenges but benefit from growing specialty demand.
Broader Trends Shaping 2026 and Beyond
- Climate Change & Resilience: Droughts and excessive rains highlight vulnerability. By 2050, suitable coffee land may shrink significantly without adaptation.
- Sustainability & Regulation: EUDR deadlines pressure exporters on traceability. Certifications (Fairtrade, organic, Rainforest Alliance) are growing, especially in Ethiopia, Colombia, and Peru.
- Market Dynamics: High prices in 2024–25 spurred investment and supply recovery. Robusta exports surged in early 2025/26. Specialty demand remains robust.
- Economic Impact: Coffee supports ~12.5 million farming households. Brazil and Vietnam dominate exports. Smallholders remain most vulnerable to volatility.
- 2026/27 Outlook: Early forecasts indicate potential production above 180M bags if Brazil’s record harvest occurs and recoveries hold. Emerging markets will continue driving consumption growth.
Summary
2026 marks a transition from shortage-driven high prices to a more balanced, though still tight-stocks, market. Brazil’s dominance is set to strengthen, while Vietnam, Indonesia, and Ethiopia solidify their positions in Robusta and specialty segments. Long-term success depends on climate adaptation, sustainability, and innovation in varieties and processing. Opportunities abound in premium positioning and supply-chain resilience amid record availability.
This report draws on official forecasts as of early 2026. Data may be refined with subsequent national surveys, including Conab updates. Customized analysis, including by variety, export flows, or price scenarios, can be provided upon request.
