Author: Qahwa World – Nairobi
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report UG2026-0001
Date: May 20, 2026
Ugandan Coffee Output Rises to 7.2 Million Bags in 2026
Executive Summary
- Ugandan coffee production for 2026/2027 is forecast at 7.2 million 60 kg bags, up from 7.1 million bags.
- Planted area expands to 595,000 hectares, driven by land use shift from timber to coffee in Masaka region.
- Robusta accounts for 80% of output (6.0 million bags); Arabica 20% (1.1 million bags).
- Exports forecast at 6.8 million bags, up 1.9%, with the European Union taking 73% of total exports.
- Domestic consumption rises slightly to 335,000 bags, supported by hospitality sector growth.
- Fertilizer prices up 21% for a 50‑kg bag, limiting farmer uptake.
- Government plans gradual shift from green bean exports to processed coffee (roasted and soluble) to boost value addition.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service office in Nairobi forecasts Ugandan coffee production for marketing year 2026/2027 at 7.2 million 60 kg bags, up from 7.1 million bags in the previous season.
The increase is driven by expansion in area under production, supported by sustained high prices in recent years.
Coffee exports in 2026/2027 are projected to rise from 6.7 million to 6.8 million bags.
Domestic consumption is forecast to increase slightly to 335,000 bags, supported by growth in the hospitality sector and a gradual rise in coffee consumption, particularly in urban areas.
FAS Nairobi forecasts planted area in 2026/2027 at 595,000 hectares, up from 590,000 hectares in 2025/2026.
This growth is driven by a gradual shift in land use from timber production to coffee, particularly in the Masaka region.
Uganda’s smallholder coffee farmers typically farm on 0.5 to 2.5 hectares of land.
Small farms dominate the sector and account for about 90% of total production, while medium and large-scale estates contribute the remaining 10%.
Robusta Dominates Production
For 2026/2027, post forecasts robusta production at 6.0 million 60 kg bags and arabica production at 1.1 million bags.
The increase reflects marginal expansion in area planted, driven by prevailing high prices.
Favorable weather conditions, increased adoption of improved agronomic practices, and the maturation of high-yielding trees planted earlier further support growth.
Robusta accounts for approximately 80% of total national production, with arabica making up the remaining 20%.
Uganda’s main coffee-growing regions are the central, eastern, and western zones, with emerging production areas in the north.
Robusta is mainly grown in the central region, although cultivation is increasingly expanding into the north due to increased investment and land availability.
Arabica is mainly cultivated in high-altitude areas of the eastern and western regions.
Table 1: Uganda Coffee Production, Supply and Distribution (1,000 60 kg bags)
| Item | 2024/2025 | 2025/2026 | 2026/2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Planted Area (1,000 HA) | 580 | 590 | 595 |
| Harvested Area (1,000 HA) | 570 | 575 | 580 |
| Robusta (1,000 bags) | 5,670 | 5,815 | 6,025 |
| Arabica (1,000 bags) | 1,030 | 1,060 | 1,135 |
| Total Production (1,000 bags) | 6,700 | 6,875 | 7,160 |
| Exports (1,000 bags) | 6,350 | 6,700 | 6,830 |
| Domestic Consumption (1,000 bags) | 325 | 330 | 335 |
| Ending Stocks (1,000 bags) | 269 | 334 | 329 |
Fertilizer Costs and Pest Challenges
Fertilizer use among Ugandan coffee farmers remains low, although farmers are starting to adopt its use.
Medium and large-scale farmers account for most fertilizer applications, while a growing number of smallholders are beginning to incorporate fertilizer into their agronomic practices.
However, high costs continue to constrain broader uptake.
Prices of commonly used nitrogen and phosphorus-based fertilizers have increased by approximately 21% for a 50‑kilogram bag, limiting affordability for farmers.
Most smallholder farmers continue to rely primarily on mechanical and traditional control methods to manage pests and diseases.
However, there is a gradual increase in the use of agrochemicals, particularly pesticides, driven by persistent and increasingly severe pest and disease pressures.
The twig borer is the most common pest, while coffee rust is the most recurrent disease.
These challenges continue to affect yields and increase production costs.
Coffee production is largely rain-fed, with rainfall generally sufficient.
Irrigation is more relevant in areas with less reliable rainfall, including parts of the north and east, but adoption remains limited due to high capital and operational costs.
Exports and Markets
Uganda exports over 98% of its coffee as green beans.
Exports in 2026/2027 are forecast at approximately 6.8 million bags, up 1.9%, driven by sustained strong global demand.
The European Union remains Uganda’s main export destination, accounting for about 73% of total exports in 2024/2025.
Morocco and the United States each account for about 6%.
The United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia, Turkey, and Ukraine each take about 1%, while other destinations collectively account for about 6%.
Uganda is increasingly expanding its reach into non-traditional markets, with Morocco and China gaining importance.
Post revised the 2025/2026 export estimate upward by 2.8% from 6.52 to 6.70 million bags to reflect additional exports to non-reporting destinations, particularly Sudan.
Policy Shift Toward Value Addition
Uganda plans to gradually reduce exports of unprocessed coffee in line with the country’s focus on value addition to achieve its ambitious tenfold growth strategy.
The government aims to attract investment in coffee processing activities to expand industries, increase export earnings, and create jobs across the value chain.
This would prioritize exports of processed coffee products such as roasted and soluble coffee over green beans.
However, officials indicate that the transition will occur gradually rather than through an immediate ban, allowing green bean exports to continue in the short to medium term as local processing capacity and supporting infrastructure expand.
In 2025, the government restructured the Uganda Coffee Development Authority, integrating its functions into the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries.
Initial implementation has yielded mixed feedback, with some stakeholders reporting continued access to services with minimal disruption, while others indicate delays in service delivery.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much coffee will Uganda produce in 2026/2027?
Production is forecast at 7.2 million 60 kg bags, up from 7.1 million bags.
What is the breakdown between Robusta and Arabica?
Robusta accounts for 6.0 million bags (80%), while Arabica accounts for 1.1 million bags (20%).
What are the main export destinations for Ugandan coffee?
The European Union takes 73% of exports, followed by Morocco (6%) and the United States (6%).
How much have fertilizer prices increased?
Fertilizer prices have risen by approximately 21% for a 50‑kg bag.
What is Uganda’s policy on coffee exports?
Uganda plans to gradually reduce green bean exports and shift toward processed coffee (roasted and soluble) to boost value addition.
Author: Qahwa World – Nairobi | Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report UG2026-0001 | Date: May 20, 2026
