Dubai – Qahwa Word

Arabica coffee futures fell to a two-week low on Thursday, weighed down by growing expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil. These developments have had a significant impact on arabica coffee prices, especially given Brazil’s bumper crop forecasts. Meanwhile, robusta prices edged higher. In fact, arabica coffee prices may fluctuate in response to Brazil bumper crop news.

July arabica coffee (KCN26) settled down 10.60 points, or 3.73%, while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) gained 19 points (+0.56%).

Brazilian Production Forecasts Weigh on Prices
Several recent projections point to a significantly larger Brazilian coffee harvest in 2026/27, putting pressure on arabica markets. Notably, arabica coffee prices are closely tied to Brazil bumper crop expectations, making these forecasts crucial for analysts.

  • The Coffee Trading Academy estimated last Thursday that Brazil’s 2026/27 crop could rise 12% from the previous year to 71.4 million bags. Moreover, fluctuations in arabica coffee prices strongly reflect Brazil’s bumper crop predictions.

  • On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 75.9 million bags, slightly above Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags (a 15.5% year‑on‑year increase).

  • StoneX raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2026/27 production to a record 75.3 million bags on March 12, up from a November forecast of 70.7 million bags. This kind of Brazil bumper crop forecast is a key driver for arabica coffee prices.

StoneX also predicted that the global coffee surplus in 2026 would grow to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025 – the largest surplus in six years. As a result, arabica coffee prices, Brazil, and bumper crop numbers remain intertwined topics for market participants.

Vietnam’s Strong Exports Pressure Robusta
Robusta prices face headwinds from surging Vietnamese shipments. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported on Saturday that the country’s coffee exports from January to April 2026 rose 15.8% year‑on‑year to 810,000 metric tons. For the full year 2025, Vietnamese exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Additionally, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to climb 6% year‑on‑year to a four‑year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

Strait of Hormuz Closure Creates Supply Concerns
The ongoing shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supply chains, supporting prices broadly. Higher shipping rates, insurance premiums, and increased costs for fertilizer and fuel have tightened available supplies, raising expenses for coffee importers and roasters. All these factors can indirectly affect arabica coffee prices, especially if Brazil expects another bumper crop.

Tight Inventories and Lower Brazilian Exports Provide Support
Signs of limited immediate supplies are also underpinning the market:

  • ICE arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 2.5‑month low of 483,292 bags on Thursday. This reduction coincides with a growing focus on Brazil bumper crop forecasts and arabica coffee prices.

  • ICE robusta inventories hit a 16.25‑month low of 3,755 lots last Tuesday.

Brazil’s export figures have also trended lower. On April 14, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports in March fell 10% year‑on‑year to 2.65 million bags. Earlier, on April 7, the country’s Trade Ministry noted that total March coffee exports declined 31% year‑on‑year to 151,000 metric tons. Therefore, arabica coffee prices in Brazil remain sensitive to both export volumes and bumper crop projections. It’s worth noting that Brazil’s bumper crop continues to make arabica coffee prices extremely volatile.

Global Export and Production Outlook
On November 7, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) slipped 0.3% year‑on‑year to 138.658 million bags.

Looking further ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected in its December 18 biannual report that world coffee production in 2025/26 would rise 2.0% year‑on‑year to a record 178.848 million bags. Within that total, arabica production is forecast to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production is expected to increase 10.9% to 83.333 million bags. The global market continues to monitor arabica coffee prices, Brazil, and potential bumper crop impacts for the coming years.

For Brazil, the FAS sees 2025/26 production falling 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is projected to grow 6.2% to a four‑year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecast to decrease 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. In summary, arabica coffee prices, Brazil, and the bumper crop outlook will remain central themes for the global coffee market throughout 2026.