DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD
Coffee prices rose for a second consecutive day at the end of the week, following recent declines that prompted roasting companies to return to the market and rebuild their low inventories.
March arabica contracts recorded a slight increase, while robusta contracts rose to a one-week high, signaling strong renewed demand.
- Sharp Declines Trigger Buying
Over the past two weeks, coffee faced significant pressure. Robusta prices fell to a six-month low, while arabica prices reached the same level, amid expectations of a plentiful Brazilian crop.
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Brazil’s National Supply Agency Conab announced that the country’s coffee production in 2026 is expected to rise by 17.2 percent compared to last year, reaching a record 66.2 million bags. Arabica production is projected to increase by 23.2 percent to 44.1 million bags, while robusta output is expected to rise by 6.3 percent to 22.1 million bags.
- Rainfall Improves Crop Outlook
Heavy rainfall has eased drought concerns and improved expectations for Brazil’s coffee harvest. Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-growing region, received 72.6 millimeters of rain for the week ending February 6, or 113 percent of the historical average, according to Somar Meteorologia.
- Vietnam Increases Supply
Meanwhile, rising exports from Vietnam have added pressure on robusta prices. Vietnam’s January exports rose 38.3 percent year-on-year to 198,000 metric tons, while full-year 2025 exports increased 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons.
Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2025/2026 season is expected to rise six percent to 1.76 million metric tons, the highest level in four years, further boosting global robusta supply.
- Inventory Recovery Limits Gains
Coffee inventories monitored by international exchanges have recovered from previous lows, moderating price gains. Arabica stocks rose from a one-and-a-half-year low, and robusta inventories recovered from a thirteen-month low to reach a two-month high.
- Price Support Factors
Despite abundant supply in some regions, supportive factors remain. Brazil’s trade data showed January exports fell 42.4 percent year-on-year.
Colombia’s coffee production fell 34 percent in January to 893,000 bags, supporting arabica prices, as Colombia is the world’s second-largest producer of arabica coffee.
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Globally, the International Coffee Organization reported that world coffee exports during the marketing year from October to September declined 0.3 percent to 138.658 million bags, reflecting a slight tightening of global supply.
- Global Production Forecast
The United States Department of Agriculture’s biannual report projects that world coffee production in the 2025/2026 season will rise two percent to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to decrease 4.7 percent to 95.515 million bags, while robusta output will rise 10.9 percent to 83.333 million bags.
Global ending stocks are projected to fall 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in the previous season.
This data shows that the coffee market is balancing between ample supply in some countries and declining production and exports in others, alongside renewed demand at low price levels, keeping prices volatile and closely watched in the coming weeks.
