Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee production in Colombia, the world’s largest producer of washed Arabica coffee, recorded a sharp drop in February 2026. Production reached 869,000 bags, with each bag weighing 60 kilograms, marking a decline of 36% compared with the same month last year. This decrease reflects a continuing negative trend that is putting pressure on the global coffee supply.

  • Noticeable Drop in Annual Production

When looking at the total production over the last 12 months, from March 2025 to February 2026, the total reached 12.72 million bags. This represents a decline of 14% compared with the previous cycle.

German Bahamon Jaramillo, the general manager of the National Coffee Federation (FNC), said that the current situation requires urgent action to protect the stability of the sector and maintain farm productivity, according to the Argentine newspaper Infobae.

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The main recommendations include improving fertilization to restore plant strength and renewing coffee farms to ensure sustainable production in the medium term. There are also calls for direct support measures for farmers to help them deal with lower profits caused by reduced production.

  • Exports Also Decline

The drop in production has also affected exports. Coffee exports in February fell by 32%, reaching 807,000 bags.

During the beginning of the agricultural season, from October to February, total exports reached 5.06 million bags. This is a decline of 14% compared with the same period in the previous cycle.

  • Production Under Pressure

Experts say this decline shows how vulnerable coffee production is to climate changes and farm management problems. It also puts pressure on global prices and may increase the cost of coffee for consumers. At the same time, it makes it more difficult for small farmers to maintain sustainable businesses.

  • Main Reasons for the Decline

Several factors are behind the drop in production.

Climate changes:
Continuous heavy rain and thick cloud cover affected flowering and plant growth. This also led to the spread of diseases such as coffee leaf rust, although detection rates remain low thanks to resistant coffee varieties.

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Farm management challenges:
Coffee plants are showing signs of exhaustion after several years of strong production. The 2024/2025 season recorded the highest production level in 30 years. In addition, higher costs for inputs such as fertilizers and labor have increased pressure on farmers.

Weak start to 2026:
The decline follows a 34% drop in January 2026, when production reached 893,000 bags, making the start of the year one of the weakest in recent years.

  • Suggested Actions

Experts suggest several steps to address the situation.

Short term:
Improve fertilization to strengthen plants and provide direct financial support for small farmers, who produce about 70% of the country’s coffee, to help offset income losses.

Medium term:
Renew coffee farms to ensure long-term sustainability and adopt varieties that are more resistant to climate conditions. Price-stabilization mechanisms are also recommended to reduce market volatility.

Long term:
Address climate change through global strategies. A report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) and other groups expects that global coffee production could be affected by up to 50% by 2050 if adaptation measures are not taken.

  • Impact on Global Supply

Colombia represents about 10% to 12% of global Arabica production. Because of this, any decline in its output puts pressure on the global supply, especially when production also drops in countries like Vietnam or Indonesia during some periods.

However, some of this pressure may be eased by expectations of a record Brazilian crop in the 2026/2027 season, estimated at 66.2 million bags, an increase of 17.2%. This could push global production to around 180 million bags.

Still, climate volatility keeps supply fragile. As a result, major international buyers, including the United States and Europe, may look for temporary alternatives.

  • Price Movements

Arabica prices recently fell from record levels above $4 per pound in November 2025 to about $2.80 to $3.00 per pound today, mainly because of strong crop expectations in Brazil.

However, the decline in Colombian production has helped push prices up by about 2% to 5% in recent weeks. This increase is linked to concerns about global supply and geopolitical tensions, including shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The World Bank expects Arabica prices to fall by 13% to 15% during 2026 overall. But this outlook could change if production in Colombia continues to decline.

For consumers, coffee prices in the market may rise by about 5% to 10% in the short term, especially in Europe and the United States.