June 2024 Coffee Market Report: Detailed Review

The June 2024 Coffee Market Report, issued by the International Coffee Organization, highlights significant trends and developments in the global coffee market. Key metrics such as the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP), export statistics, and regional performance provide a comprehensive view of the market dynamics.

Overview

The June 2024 Coffee Market Report highlights significant trends and developments in the global coffee market. Key metrics such as the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP), export statistics, and regional performance provide a comprehensive view of the market dynamics.

Price Trends

The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) reached a 13-year high in June 2024:

  • Averaged 226.83 US cents/lb, an 8.9% increase from May 2024
  • Fluctuated between 221.71 and 235.69 US cents/lb
  • 32.5% higher than June 2023
  • 12-month rolling average at 179.39 US cents/lb

Group Indicator Prices:

  • Colombian Milds: Increased 7.2% to 250.39 US cents/lb
  • Other Milds: Rose 7.0% to 248.39 US cents/lb
  • Brazilian Naturals: Grew 9.3% to 229.25 US cents/lb
  • Robustas: Strongest growth at 10.5%, reaching 204.30 US cents/lb

Futures Markets:

  • New York: Increased 8.4% to 226.42 US cents/lb
  • London: Rose 10.7% to 182.82 US cents/lb

Price Differentials:

  • Colombian Milds–Other Milds: Expanded from 1.39 to 2.00 US cents/lb
  • Colombian Milds–Brazilian Naturals: Contracted 10.9% to 21.13 US cents/lb
  • Colombian Milds–Robustas: Shrank 5.0% to 46.08 US cents/lb

Export Analysis

Overall Exports:

  • Global green bean exports in May 2024: 10.76 million bags, up 12.0% year-on-year
  • Cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 (Oct-May): 84.02 million bags, up 11.6%

By Coffee Group (Green Beans):

  • Colombian Milds: Up 10.0% to 1.01 million bags
  • Other Milds: Increased 1.2% to 2.57 million bags
  • Brazilian Naturals: Rose 56.1% to 3.8 million bags
  • Robustas: Decreased 13.4% to 3.39 million bags

Regional Performance:

  • Asia & Oceania: Decreased 39.3% to 2.42 million bags
    • Vietnam: Down 46.9% to 1.36 million bags
    • Indonesia: Decreased 67.1% to 0.2 million bags
  • Africa: Increased 44.8% to 1.74 million bags
    • Côte d’Ivoire: Up 119.4% to 0.21 million bags
    • Ethiopia: Rose 97.1% to 0.69 million bags
    • Uganda: Increased 22.1% to 0.55 million bags
  • South America: Up 59.6% to 5.54 million bags
    • Brazil: Increased 79.1% to 4.42 million bags (record high)
  • Mexico & Central America: Slight increase of 0.2% to 2.074 million bags

Production and Consumption

Production (2023/24 estimates):

  • Total: 178.0 million bags, up 5.8% from 2022/23
  • Arabica: 102.2 million bags, up 8.8%
  • Robusta: 75.8 million bags, up 2.1%

Regional Production:

  • Africa: 20.1 million bags, up 12.1%
  • South America: 89.3 million bags, up 9.8%
  • Asia & Oceania: 49.9 million bags, up 0.3%
  • Caribbean, Central America & Mexico: 18.7 million bags, down 2.5%

Consumption (2023/24 projections):

  • Global: 177.0 million bags, up 2.2%
  • Exporting countries: 56.5 million bags, up 2.6%
  • Importing countries: 120.5 million bags, up 2.1%

Market Dynamics and Factors

Supply Concerns:

  • Potential poor harvests in Vietnam and Indonesia for 2024/25
  • Brazil’s 2024/25 crop may be lower than initially expected

Currency Impact:

  • Brazilian real strengthened from 5.2320 to 5.5544 BRL/USD in June

Stock Levels:

  • London certified stocks: Increased 24.3% to 0.97 million bags
  • New York certified stocks: Rose 2.8% to 0.86 million bags

Shipping and Logistics:

  • Ethiopia faced challenges due to reduced ship availability in Djibouti
  • Maersk lifted its suspension of bookings to/from Djibouti on March 28, 2024

Soluble and Roasted Coffee Exports

Soluble Coffee:

  • Decreased 11.3% in May 2024 to 0.95 million bags
  • Year-to-date exports up 5.1% to 8.24 million bags
  • Share in total exports: 8.9%, down from 9.4% year-on-year
  • Brazil: Largest exporter at 0.38 million bags in May 2024

Roasted Beans:

  • Increased 29.8% in May 2024 to 68,167 bags
  • Cumulative total for 2023/24 (Oct-May): 0.48 million bags

This comprehensive review of the June 2024 Coffee Market Report underscores significant trends in prices, exports, production, and consumption across different regions and coffee types. The report highlights the complex interplay of factors affecting the market, including weather conditions, stock levels, currency fluctuations, and logistical challenges.

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